Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?
Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with an asteroid?
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Tianwen-2 is an asteroid rendezvous and sample return mission, which is followed by a comet rendezvous. The probe is built by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) for CNSA, China's national space agency. The spacecraft is scheduled to be launched in May of 2025.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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