Will ArianeGroup's Ariane 6 rocket successfully complete its first launch before 2024?
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Ṁ290Ṁ13kresolved Jan 1
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Resolves as yes if ArianeGroup, Arianespace, or the European Space Agency declares the launch a success and the vehicle achieves orbit.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Mqrius Unfortunate. I think going forward I'll resolve 99.99% clear markets ahead of time, as long as no one contests it. There is some utility in capturing the chance for a pivot but markets are never bid that low anyway, and I'm not sure it's outweighed by the cost of keeping the market open. Curious what people think about this.
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