Which of these NIAC Phase III missions will be executed before 2100?
Which of these NIAC Phase III missions will be executed before 2100?
4
280Ṁ182100
15%
Diffractive Solar Sailing
12%
Cube-Sat Space Flight Test of a Neutrino Detector
20%
Direct Multipixel Imaging and Spectroscopy of an Exoplanet with a Solar Gravitational Lens Mission
28%
Robotic Technologies Enabling the Exploration of Lunar Pits
12%
Mini Bee Prototype to Demonstrate the Apis Mission Architecture and Optical Mining Technology
12%
None of the above
Diffractive Solar Sailing:
https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2022/diffractive_solar_sailing/
Cube-Sat Space Flight Test of a Neutrino Detector:
Direct Multipixel Imaging and Spectroscopy of an Exoplanet with a Solar Gravitational Lens Mission:
Robotic Technologies Enabling the Exploration of Lunar Pits:
Mini Bee Prototype to Demonstrate the Apis Mission Architecture and Optical Mining Technology:
https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2019_Phase_I_Phase_II/Mini_Bee_Prototype/
It does not have to be exactly the same proposal for one of the missions to be considered "executed", but the NIAC funding should directly lead to the mission being executed and it should accomplish very similar objectives.
The market will resolve to one or multiple in 2100.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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