Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the first month in which former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is incarcerated. Incarceration is defined as being confined to a prison facility under a judicial order. House arrest, electronic monitoring, or other forms of detention do not constitute incarceration for the purposes of this market. The resolution will be based on official announcements from Brazilian judicial authorities or reputable news organizations.
Background
As of July 23, 2025, Jair Bolsonaro faces multiple legal challenges:
Coup Plot Charges: In February 2025, Bolsonaro was charged with attempting a coup to remain in power after his 2022 election defeat. The alleged plot included plans to poison President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and assassinate a Supreme Court justice. (time.com)
Trial Proceedings: In March 2025, Brazil's Supreme Court accepted these charges, ordering Bolsonaro to stand trial. If convicted, he could face up to 12 years in prison. (pbs.org)
Preventive Measures: In July 2025, Bolsonaro was subjected to preventive measures, including wearing an electronic ankle monitor and a nighttime curfew, due to concerns about potential flight risk. (ft.com)
Additional Charges: Bolsonaro has also been indicted for money laundering related to undeclared diamonds received from Saudi Arabia and for falsifying COVID-19 vaccination records. (apnews.com, theguardian.com)
Considerations
Legal Proceedings Timeline: The timeline for Bolsonaro's trials and potential sentencing is uncertain. Legal processes can be lengthy, and appeals may delay final outcomes.
Preventive Detention: While preventive measures like electronic monitoring are in place, they do not equate to incarceration. The market resolves only upon formal imprisonment.
Political Climate: Political dynamics, both domestically and internationally, may influence the progression and outcomes of legal actions against Bolsonaro.
Recent Developments in Bolsonaro's Legal Challenges:
1,000