![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FBernardoChrispimBaron%2Fp1vua7jwyc.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
If Jair Bolsonaro is condemned to prison, what set of charges will this be based on?
Mini
3
Ṁ1572027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
13%
Selling jewelry and other luxury gifts given to the Presidency under his term for his personal benefit
52%
Involvement with an attempted coup d'état after he lost the 2022 Elections and/or the 1/8/23 events
10%
Defrauding official COVID-19 vaccination records for him and his family members to travel to the USA
5%
Something pandemic-related (dissemination of fake news, encouraging people not to take protective measures, the Covaxin scandal etc)
3%
Interfering with the Federal Police for personal purposes
3%
Leaking information related to ongoing investigations of hacker attacks on the Electoral Justice
3%
Something related to an involvement with the paramilitary groups in Rio de Janeiro
5%
Something related to ghost employees or salary kickback schemes in his or his family's parliamentary cabinets
0.7%
Whale harassment
3%
I will resolve to the first indictment that reaches a final judgment and includes a penalty of at least one day of closed or semi-open prison regime.
I'll not consider short-term ("preventative"/"temporary") arrests.
The actual prison mandate does not have to be fulfilled. E.g., I will resolve it to whatever generated the penalty even if he escapes the country, a popular uprising occurs, etc.
If no definitive prison penalty is declared by the closing date, I'll resolve the market as N/A.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Jair Bolsonaro be taken to jail until the end of 2024?
16% chance
Will Bolsonaro lose his political rights without being arrested?
29% chance
Will any member of Bolsonaro entourage be charged for taking bribes from the Saudis before 2027?
57% chance
On which charges will Donald Trump be convicted in the January 6th Federal Case?
Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?
63% chance
When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?
Will Trump escape all legal consequences for 6-1-21 AND will Bolsanaro face legal consequences for 8-1-23?
41% chance
Will Bolsonaro ever be brought to trial for genocide?
3% chance
Will Sergio Moro have his mandate revoked in his first term as senator in Brazil?
12% chance
Bolsonaro status before 2024 elections