Quite concerning: Humane lays off 10 employees (apparently 4% of their workforce) and has a change of CTO. I don't know of any beta products being given to journalists. It's an extremely ambitious product being promised on short time. I'd argue priors should be pretty low (5-10%) on this being a commercial success.

With that said, they might be able to ship 10k pins even with the product not functioning as described. I suspect (making up some numbers) they have received anywhere from 500-2000 pre-orders. Condtional on shipping ≤Q2 2024 (40%), they might get another 3000-5000 orders after release, before reviews describing the lack of functionality propagate and orders slow.

I'd put a 50% chance on them delaying first deliveries >Q2 2024, conditional on a delay, a 20% chance of making deliveries in 2024.

I suspect (with a lot of uncertainty) most routes towards 10K sales involve at least a somewhat commercial success, which I think is unlikely. So I am at 30-40%,

@ElliotDavies Their AI pin ships in March, is that correct? That's what the reports I've read say. Are you putting 40% on them shipping in Q2?

@lastuserhere Yep, that's the promise.

Edit: oh sorry, I mistook March as being in Q2 (ops!). I have fixed now

@lastuserhere I'd basically give 40% on shipping on time, or slightly delayed.

@ElliotDavies They have now confirmed it will ship late. I understand they expect units to be leaving the factory at the end of this month, and shipping to customers an additional amount of time later.

A more fine-grained market for tracking AI pin units sold:

new AI hardware product - rabbit's R1 - will it do better than Humane's AI pin?

@SG how soon could this resolve, would this resolve if the company claim to have reached more than 10k preorders?

@ElliotDavies Yes, I'd consider resolving this market on news of 10k paid preorders unless there's credible reporting that the numbers are fake.

I am at 65% now, 70% when they launch. 90% that a product like this will be widely successful in the near future. It's able to coach you at all time, using every habit building trick in the book. The difference in productivity, academic performance, an overall life satisifaction between people who use this and don't use it will be huge.

One crux for me is how long till AI agents are really nailed. For this product to be successful, it needs to commit a lot about you to memory.

Limit order up at 33% if anyone wants it.

@DanMan314 Ultimately, 10k units is just a really low bar. Google Glass sold 21 million units in 2018 (edit: this was completely wrong), and while Humane isn't Google, with a $100m Series C funding round, their obvious internal connections in silicon valley, and the huge wave of media attention it's getting, it's difficult to imagine they won't be able to get 10k products out the door by the end of next year.

From what I've seen it's still a crappy product though.

@DanMan314 Google Glass has definitely not sold 21 million units in 2018 lol.

I suspect the figures you’re looking at are “analyst” projections, made back in 2014.

@chilli Oh lmao you’re right. Whoops.

@DanMan314 Agree. Not a good measure of adoption or product quality. I am not convinced by it, yet I am considering to buy one to try.

https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/30/humanes-ai-pin-debuts-on-the-paris-runway/

Humane’s ‘AI Pin’ debuts on the Paris runway | TechCrunch

Humane, a stealthy software and hardware company, is clearly milking the media hype cycle for all it’s worth. The company's origin dates all the way back