Challenge bets are a new feature we recently introduced to Manifold which allow users to invite their friends to bet against them on a particular question.

If, at the end of the year, challenge bets have lead to a permanent and lasting increase of 200 or more users to our daily active user (DAU) count, this will resolve affirmatively. You can see our current DAUs here: https://manifold.markets/stats.

Assessing the long-term counterfactual impact of a new feature is obviously very tricky. I will use my best judgment and will probably rely on correlational evidence + a good story (i.e. if I see a spike of thousands of signups coming from challenge bets, and solid retention of the users who joined, that would be good evidence).

Feel free to move this market by suggesting ways to improve challenge bets (or our marketing of them)!