Will an OpenAI employee be publicly revealed as a spy for the Chinese government before 2025?
65
238
4.3k
Dec 14
15%
chance

Either OpenAI, the goverment, or a credible media source must make a statement claiming they have identified a specific employee as a spy. The employee's identity does not need to be made public, but it must be known to individuals in OpenAI or the goverment.

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I find it incredibly amusing that, technically, the Chinese government could announce this without identifying the spy and this market would resolve YES.

@Ernie how is it actually working for openai? do they have a culture where they share almost everything with everyone or more like apple?

@Soli I have no idea! But it would be nice to know. If only Ilya would leave EU & US jurisdiction and spill the beans

Looks like it's happened for Google's AI division: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68497508

bought Ṁ100 of NO

P(spy exists) x P(spy caught | spy exists) x P(public announcement | spy caught)

This seems overpriced to me

@HarlanStewart not necessarily, a mistaken spy could be announced

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This must happen all the time at Google etc but finding out is extremely rare since nobody has an incentive to talk about it. Maybe because of the spotlight on ai it will be higher profile? But since it'd be a Chinese guy the normal script that it's racially justified will be run regardless of reality

predicts NO

"But since it'd be a Chinese guy the normal script that it's racially justified will be run regardless of reality"
What do you mean by this? What is the "it" that would be racially justified, that is? Help me parse pls :)

bought Ṁ4 of NO

Employee? contractors? Or interns? Or temporary workers? FTE? SDE/SWE? Ads department? HR? PR? everything ok?

@Dreamingpast Anyone in an employee-like relationship will count, including most of your examples. (What wouldn't count? Random subcontractors who don't directly interact with OpenAI employees. It's a bit of a fuzzy line, but I intend to resolve according to the spirit of "employee" rather than any specific legal definition.)

predicts NO

@SG Thank you.

@Dreamingpast u're welcome

Likely true but won't be revealed

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