Chinese nationals are no longer able to work for OpenAI or Anthropic in the US before 2030

Question

Perhaps due to it being reclassified as a national industry, or being voluntarily withdrawn by China.

If they are withdrawn or not able to work for a period of one week, it counts.  If they later come back, it still counts as long as the prohibition lasted at least 7 days.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 43% chance (34 traders, as of Oct 26, 2025).