Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?
88
8.7k
2034
41%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Fully Operational: The space hotel must be functioning and able to accommodate guests for overnight stays. This includes having life support systems, sleeping quarters, and other necessary amenities for a hotel functioning properly.

  2. Commercially Available: The space hotel must be open to the public and not just astronauts or employees of space agencies. Stays must be available for purchase by the general public. It doesn't necessarily need to be affordable to the average person, but it should not be restricted to particular institutions or professions.

  3. Hotel in Space: The hotel must be located in space, defined as being beyond the Kármán line (an altitude of 100 kilometers or about 62 miles above Earth's sea level), which is widely accepted as the boundary of outer space.

  4. Deadline: The space hotel must be fully operational and accepting guests on or before December 31, 2034.

  5. Judgement: Compliance with these criteria can be validated through reputable media reports, company press releases, or regulatory filings.

H/T @Soli

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Data:

  • Number of companies working on space hotels: 4+

  • Number of companies that have announced plans to launch space hotels in the early 2030s: 2

  • Earliest planned launch date: 2024

Analysis:

The fact that there are multiple companies working on space hotels, and that some of them have already announced plans to launch their hotels in the early 2030s, suggests that it is probable that a space hotel will be operational before 2035. However, it is important to note that there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before space hotels can become a reality, including the cost of development and launch, and the need to develop new technologies for life support and transportation in space.

Conclusion:

Based on the available data and analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that the probability of a space hotel being operational before 2035 is high.

Reference:

predicts YES

@saraf3ab Thanks, ChatGPT.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 28%
predicts NO

@SG one day GPT will learn that putting any weight on hype articles from space startups is not a winning strategy

Does it count if it just serves as a hotel temporarily? For example, what if the ISS became a hotel for a few months when it is decommissioned?

@calderknight If ISS became a full-service commercial hotel, it would count. If it had a single guest as a stunt before being decommissioned, it wouldn't. Anything in between, I would have to see the specifics...

The hotel has to stay in space, right? It doesn't count as a hotel if you go up in a shuttle, the shuttle is in space for two days, and then you come back?

predicts YES

@Joshua Correct.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 29%
predicts YES

@SG What exactly is the ISS currently lacking in order to qualify as a hotel for this question?

NASA already lets you stay on the ISS for $35,000 per day, this includes food and all kinds of necessary supplies. I think the only thing that's missing is sleeping quarters, because the limited sleeping places on the ISS are taken up by the permanent residents; space tourists visiting the ISS (for example with Axiom Space) will probably sleep in their docked Dragon spacecraft instead.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/7/18656280/nasa-space-station-private-astronauts-commercial-business

@dp9000 I think a question about when the first purpose-built space hotel becomes operational might be more interesting

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