Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?
49
1.2k
2030
37%
chance

Sierra Space recently tested their LIFE inflatable space habitat to demonstrate that it met NASA safety standards.

This market will resolve to YES if, before 2030, there is a space station or part of a space station in orbit that satisfies the following conditions:

  • It is listed on Wikipedia's inflatable space habitat page, or another similar page if this one no longer exists

  • It has a volume of at least 100 cubic meters

  • Humans have occupied it for at least 100 days

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO at the end of 2029.

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The fact that this has been experimentally tested on the ISS is a big upside for this idea, definetely warrants a higher probability for that, alongside the heating up space race. I will still be betting down for the time being because a lot can go wrong for this, but I would be very happy for this to resolve yes!

Now, THIS is a market!

predicts YES

@Arky will you resolve YES if they will attach to ISS?

@ftkurt Yes, as long as the inflatable component is at least 100 cubic meters in volume. I know there is already a smaller experimental inflatable habitat attached to the ISS.

I was considering to vote yes until I saw the last item “Humans have occupied it for at least 100 days”

@ftkurt I just watched the video; these guys look promising.

@ftkurt It doesn't have to be 100 days in a row or the same people for 100 days, just 100 days with humans inside of the habitat while it is in orbit in total.

predicts YES

@Arky But single person counts? Or say, rotating single person habitance?

@ftkurt Sure, that would count. I think most proposals are for multiple people at a time anyway.