Sierra Space recently tested their LIFE inflatable space habitat to demonstrate that it met NASA safety standards.
This market will resolve to YES if, before 2030, there is a space station or part of a space station in orbit that satisfies the following conditions:
It is listed on Wikipedia's inflatable space habitat page, or another similar page if this one no longer exists
It has a volume of at least 100 cubic meters
Humans have occupied it for at least 100 days
Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO at the end of 2029.
Related questions
The fact that this has been experimentally tested on the ISS is a big upside for this idea, definetely warrants a higher probability for that, alongside the heating up space race. I will still be betting down for the time being because a lot can go wrong for this, but I would be very happy for this to resolve yes!
@ftkurt Yes, as long as the inflatable component is at least 100 cubic meters in volume. I know there is already a smaller experimental inflatable habitat attached to the ISS.
@ftkurt It doesn't have to be 100 days in a row or the same people for 100 days, just 100 days with humans inside of the habitat while it is in orbit in total.