Hide lifetime profits behind an additional button press or a toggle option:

I expect most casual users without any betting experience will always have negative lifetime profits, and I expect it's discouraging to see a big red number telling you how bad you are every time you hit your profile button. Net worth (with manifold's current economy) though is likely to grow even for below average betters. That would make a more encouraging default view. Number-go-up game for all.

Other more gentle options for the default profile view:

Net profits for the last month / week only

Change in net profits for the last month / week

A lot of people have been suggesting using real money, but I think that's a bad idea. People can already use real money to buy mana, or exchange mana for real-life charitable donations, and I think that's as far as it should go. Personally, I would never have joined Manifold if it was a real-money prediction site. I had used sites like PredictIt before as a source of information, but never even thought about making bets on one until I found out that there was a place you could do it for free with nothing more than a Google account. I imagine that most of the new users gained from the superconductor market (and, further back, from Whales vs. Minnows) wouldn't have joined if it was a real-money site, either.

I think Manifold should try to capture the play-money/fun prediction site market rather than try to move into a totally different space that already has a lot of other markets in it and will make it less accessible. Plus, I don't exactly know what the legal status of real-money prediction markets are, but I'm pretty sure there are restrictions on them in the U.S., where a lot of Manifolders probably live.

I am zero at marketing, so i'm telling what would make Manifold more attractive to me (if i were not already here).

1. Whole site calibration plot like on metaculus. It generally feels better when site does track combined performance of users.

   

2. Having a central curated newsfeed. I appreciate the new splitting into themes, but there is still too much for a new user (and most markets intersect). Imagine a feed, which has only 1 market per possible world-scale important event. One about nuclear, one about rus-ukr, one about US president and so on.

Be first under every twitter thread.

I see lots of youtube videos (especially related to video games) showing ads for online ingame-item-gambling.

So here's a way to mayyyybe play to Manifold's strengths: emphasize how "free" (in multiple senses) it is, compared to actually-regulated gambling/prediction markets.

Including:

• "Bet on anything"

• "No money needed, no limits, no rules" [obviously rework this to get across the subtleties without losing the core idea of "it's not a real-money thing, therefore there's fewer restrictions on what you can do".

• "Make your own markets"

The other part of this idea, the video-sponsoring part, is less crucial. For reference, I got this idea after seeing ads that look like this.

So just started a few days ago, and the biggest issue for me is that there doesnt seem to be enough quality questions that resolve quickly enough that I can win or lose and keep going. As long as the points are fake and its not real money I am not going to spend money to keep playing - this is fair enough, but it means you have to get me hooked and help me establish a cycle of bets and those bets resolving. I fairly quickly locked away all of my points into questions that dont resolve for a month or the end of the year or even longer.

Its good and necessary to have those longer running questions I believe, but for me to get hooked and keep coming back in the short term I need questions that are not one sided and will resolve today or tomorrow.

Now I don't have a lot of answers about what those questions are, but also it might be that they exist and im not adept at finding them yet. But I argue its in the sites best interest to help me find those questions.

Edit: ill add that the reason I found this question is that im trying to raise points to make more bets!

Take advantage of those with crippling gambling addictions. Spam all the online gambling sites with messages about the markets.

Market the "bounties" feature as a productivity/self-help tool, kinda like ChatGPT. "Want in-depth info, from real humans?"

Since it's a market-for-information, basically.

I find sports incredibly dull, but people love to bet on them. I’d lean in on niche sporting events and try to catalyze users to participate that way.

Ex. Who’s going to win Texas vs Oklahoma, donate proceeds to a youth football camp or something.

The Sunday NYT article is what brought me here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Share that around some more I guess…?

(On a side note, I tried to refer a friend to join with me yesterday and he found it “disgusting” that people were “betting” on the number of Israeli casualties in the current Gaza conflict (or something similar). So maybe curate your non-logged in home page a little more so it doesn’t seem so ruthless.)

Making plausible attempts at scientific breakthroughs and then creating markets on them seems to work. Manifold should be trying to make RT superconductors, create life saving drugs, theories of everything, etc

Growth hack idea no one mentioned: a Room Temp Superconductor

While it might sound ambitious, it would be exciting and educational to invite experts or analysts for long-term predictions (those spanning over a year). Host a live stream or video where they can explain the analytical (statistical) methods that can be applied, the arguments in favour, and sources for estimating the probability of an event. These don't have to be top-tier experts! By doing this, you could:

a) attract a new audience and generate additional revenue from YouTube;

b) distance yourselves from the gambling stigma and take on a more educational role 👍 ; and

c) in the long run, and with monumental success 🤣 , specialists might even pay you for the opportunity to feature on your esteemed platform!

Portray the make-your-own-markets feature as a productivity/self-help tool, much like Beeminder. This could even involve a new market type like "goal over time", with a progress-trendline. (OK that part may be over-complicated, but the first part I think could be big. "Bet points with your friends on your personal goals")

What I do for my label is I have people post our music on discords and reddit groups. It's slow growth but it works.

Ponzis!
(note the rules don't require it to be legal)

Allow conversion of mana to real dollars, even if it is just a secondary market where users can buy/sell to each other.

I understand this may not be regulatorily feasible

Seeing as the apps primary focus is on betting consider adding betting games to the platform. Things like poker and blackjack against other players, slots, etc.

Reach more users outside of traditional user circles, e.g. with adds and more importantly a wider range of topics

Disclaimer: i did not read ALL the comments so i may have repeated someones suggestion.

I kind of disagree with the guys who said better advertisements are a must.

I would go with the route of giving a Real world value (as in a “cash out”) option to mana, make a way to post just simple statuses and add a Reddit-esque karma system so the incentive to use mana is higher and also community voting options on the charities.