Falcon 9 Family includes Falcon heavy and Falcon 9.
If by chance there are failures or intentional suborbital flights they do not count to the total.
Number of launches must be more than to resolve yes. If they are equal it does not count as “more than” and would resolve to no.
Related questions
@GabeGarboden I certainly agree. I am curious how and when Starship launches of Starlink will affect the frequency of falcon 9 launches. They still make up a significant portion of the flight schedule. I think the 2024-2025 case is much more interesting as of right now.
@RyanTyznar I think it will take a while to fly starship reliably and quickly. Remember - Falcon 9 is launching ~3 times per week. Going to take a couple years to get Starship up to that. 2027 likely first year Starship surpasses Falcon 9 imo.
@GabeGarboden Oh but it doesnt need to surpass Falcon 9. One starship launch can do what would take 5 or more Falcon 9 launches to do. I believe they are likely to use Starlink to improve and test Starship reliability and reusability the same as they did with Falcon 9. Starlink will begin launching on Starship to help make Starship more reliable not because starship already is reliable. They take this risk themselves rather than waiting for customers to do so. Hence, I see Starship eating into Falcon 9 launches as soon as 2025. Potentially reducing their total launches that year compared to the previous.
@RyanTyznar Yes, I think it comes down to whether or not SpaceX will be able to replace most Starlink F9 launches with Starship launches. In the meantime launch demand should be growing as well. I still am very confident F9 launches will grow in 2025 compared to 2024 - but we’ll see!