Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?
21
Ṁ1kṀ15k
resolved May 23
Resolved
NO

https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-12

All flight goals is defined by the list of events in the “Flight Test Timeline” at the link above. Will resolve yes if all events happen as listed.

  • Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding Payload Deploy Demo: resolves as success if the full payload is fully deployed, regardless of minor issues (e.g., a slight bump on the door). Resolves as failure only if the payload cannot be fully deployed.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ683
2Ṁ174
3Ṁ119
4Ṁ118
5Ṁ67
Sort by:

https://x.com/_MaxQ_/status/2054307795454091462

Booster 19: "The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America. As this is the first flight test of a significantly redesigned vehicle, the booster will not attempt a return to the launch site for catch."

That is no longer at
https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-12
having been updated with what happened but I can assure you it was there and it can be found in multiple places like
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/8002/

So boostback burn and landing burn were listed as two of the primary objectives for the booster and both of these failed.

The flight timeline includes
00:02:30 Super Heavy boostback burn start

00:03:30 Super Heavy boostback burn shutdown

00:06:34 Super Heavy landing burn start

00:06:59 Super Heavy landing burn shutdown

The update says
Following stage separation, the Super Heavy booster performed a directional flip maneuver and attempted its boostback burn. It was unable to light all planned engines and performed a partial boostback burn that ended early. Super Heavy attempted to reignite its engines for the landing burn before experiencing a hard splashdown in the Gulf of America.

Therefore no doubt that boostback and landing burn failed and I believe this question should resolve no @RyanTyznar

@ChristopherRandles next time i will relist stated goals on the market to avoid this issue

V3 satellites, and two specially modified Starlink satellites. The two modified satellites will test hardware planned for Starlink V3 and will attempt to scan Starship’s heat shield and transmit imagery down to operators to test methods of analyzing Starship’s heat shield readiness for return to launch site on future missions

How will you resolve if:

  • SpaceX doesn't mention how successful the heat shield scan is?

  • A satellite simulator hits the payload door on the way out?

@BodeyBaker in the “Flight Time Line” section it is only listed as “Payload Deploy demo start” and “Payload Deploy Demo Complete” i would say if the full payload is deployed that would count as success. Slight bonk on the door or not. If there is something causing them not be able to fully deploy the payload than that would count as failure.

Hope this clears it up. Thanks and reply with any more questions you may have.