Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the probability shown on this exact question at 12:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2026:

• YES if the market probability is > 50%

• NO if the market probability is ≤ 50%

If the market is closed or deleted before the resolution date, it will resolve based on the last recorded probability.

Considerations

• The market's final probability will reflect traders' collective assessment of various technological, social, and economic factors leading up to 2026

• The resolution is based purely on the market probability at the specified time, not on any external assessment of whether impacts were actually positive or negative

• Historical data shows that long-term predictions about technological impacts often have significant uncertainty, as demonstrated by frequently exceeded AI progress forecasts

• If the market has exactly 50% chance, then it will be a partial resolution