I believe it is unlikely that Disney will announce a fifth gate in Florida in this time period, because they would gain a similar amount of business from an equivalent investment spread among the existing parks with lower infrastructure costs. In other words, I believe that Disney would rather spend $3 billion on major expansions than spend $3 billion on a new park that would cannibalize attendance at Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom.

And since Disney no longer seems very interested in differentiating between their existing four parks when making new investments, there would not be a marketing advantage in putting the new investment behind a new gate.

Disney said that they believe that they need to increase capacity resort wide, but building a fifth gate would not be the most cost effective way to do it.