Resolution criteria

The 2026 Iran War is a conflict centered on Iran initiated by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026. This market resolves YES if Iran achieves a decisive military victory over the United States before March 31, 2026. A decisive victory requires Iran to either: (1) force a complete US military withdrawal from the region, (2) inflict sufficient casualties or losses to compel US surrender, or (3) achieve a negotiated settlement where Iran's core demands are met and the US accepts Iranian terms.

The market resolves NO if the conflict ends with a ceasefire, stalemate, or settlement favoring US objectives, or if no decisive Iranian victory occurs by March 31. Resolution will be determined by statements from official US government sources, international news organizations, and UN assessments of the conflict's outcome.

Background

On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership. The initial wave of strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials. In response, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. embassies, military installations, and oil infrastructure throughout the Middle East.

Iran still has the upper hand in many ways – in part because of its unconventional warfare methods, including cheap drones and sea mines, and in part because of its geography. Taken together, these two realities make it harder for the United States or others to defend vessels or to secure the strait militarily. And it's lucrative for Iran to retain control. Iran has essentially shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, a Gulf waterway critical for global energy supplies.

Considerations

Iran has responded through unnamed intermediaries to a 15-point US plan to end the war and is now awaiting Washington's reply. Tehran described the US proposal as "extremely maximalist and unreasonable". Trump says he will further delay attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days – until April 6 – as he continues to claim talks with Iran on a peace deal are going "very well". The outcome depends heavily on whether negotiations succeed or military operations resume before March 31.

This description was generated by AI.