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Hope springs eternal! I re-upped this bet (slightly shorter posts goal) https://manifold.markets/Rodeo/will-the-experience-machines-substa-PqzP9sNId2?r=Um9kZW8

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

79% chance. For two years straight, I hit this goal. But I failed two days ago. Well, I'm back at it! Each month [1] for the rest of the year, https://experiencemachines.substack.com/ must post at least twice. One post must be a links roundup with at least 10 links; the other post(s) must be at least 600 words long. The market will resolve early if a given month passes without those conditions being satisfied. I will only buy YES. It's a pretty ambitious goal - see if you can earn some money from my overconfidence. Reasons to vote NO: -I failed earlier this year! One bettor made ₦24,933, a 1,531% profit, off of me. -even when I succeed, it's often down to the wire -I'm going to bet this market irrationally high -my substack is not a primary work or life priority [1] before the end of month (11:59pm) according to the time zone I'm posting from, which will usually be US Pacific Time. Depending on where you are, Substack might show something as having been posted after the end of the month. But if you subscribe (wink wink) you'll be able to know what time the email went out, and bet accordingly. [link preview]

cc @xjp

Well, friends, so ends a streak of maybe the best accountability tool / habit I've ever set up. Sadly, my most recent post went out at 12:00AM. I confess that my brain started desperately constructing arguments that that should count as "April". But alas, it just really does not count.

Thanks for the bets, and thanks for following along! My first Experience Machines market started in April 2024. So by my accounting, Manifold helped me get me two straight years of consistently posting twice a month. It's been really rewarding!

@Rodeo Oh, I was kinda expecting an argument over it! I noticed the metadata on the page source for the post:

"datePublished":"2026-05-01T07:00:28+00:00","dateModified":"2026-05-01T07:00:28+00:00"

I'm sure it feels a little bad to fail by a matter of seconds, but I guess that's the risk of leaving it to the last minute each month. Thanks for holding yourself to the letter of the rules.

@xjp haha yeah, and that risk is fire I played with a LOT over the last two years

@Rodeo very pleased that I can now write the sentence "man, I flew too close to the sun and got really cleaned out by Xi Jinping"

@Rodeo Lmao