Will I receive the @bens shame extract before I receive @strutheo's origami crane?
62%
chance

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/bens-shame-index-bsi#52wdx6967y7

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/how-much-will-this-origami-crane-se

i live in a university-owned apartment building in springfield, missouri

resolves according to which one building reception processes first

close date is provisional

  • Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both items arrive on the same day/in the same mail batch, the market will resolve based on the sequential processing number assigned by building reception (not 50%). This processing order has historically corresponded to which package triggers a mail alert first.

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@Robincvgr Resolves 50% if they arrive on the same day / in the same mail batch? Or is this resolving to which package triggers a mail alert in your email inbox first?

@Quroe they are numbered sequentially based on the order they are processed and that is what i intend to resolve on if they arrive same day, ime that has always corresponded to what triggers a mail alert first

@Robincvgr Any confirmation in the eBay app or from Strutheo that he shipped it out by now?

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