I intend to start taking semaglutide soon (in well under a month). How much weight will I lose in a year?
I am 19 years old, transfeminine, 5'9", and I weigh 225lbs. I had a basic sports-physical-esque examination in December 2023, and my only health issue found was obesity. I take a multivitamin, a B12 supplement, estradiol for transitioning, and oral progesterone as needed as a sleep aid. I may or may not begin taking some form of PrEP soon. I eat vegan (for moral reasons; I don't think very much about the healthiness of what I eat).
Starting on the calendar day one year after I begin semaglutide, I will measure my weight every morning for a week, immediately after going to the bathroom after waking up. I will take the mean of these measurements, and resolve the market according to the difference between 225lbs and this number, rounded to the nearest whole number.
I intend to start with 0.25mg qw injected subcutaneously for the first month, then 0.5mg qw the next month, then 1mg qw the next month, then 1.7mg qw the next month, then 2.4mg qw from then on. However, if I decide to take less for any reason, it will not affect how I resolve this market. I will only resolve this market N/A if I stop taking semaglutide entirely.
If I slightly deviate from the text of this market, but believe that I can still resolve it in a satisfactory way (for example, if I miss one day of weighing at the end, but I can still average together my 6 other measurements), I will do so.
Feel free to ask questions in the comments.
1,000
1.00BTW you may not realise it but there are weird incentives here. Because if you resolve N/A if you stop taking Sema, this is more likely to resolve if the drug is working well. So in a situation where you see very little effect and stop taking the drug, there’s no pay off to someone forecasting that because you’re going to resolve N/A.
@CrumbsTime I think it's very unlikely that I'll do that because of cost and accessibility reasons, but if I do, I think that's close enough to the spirit of the market to continue it as if I was still taking semaglutide. But again, I think that's very unlikely