Some see signs that wokeness has already peaked in the United States. For example, at the New York Times, journalists are now more willing to push back against woke demands.
This market is not about how woke, or anti-woke, Republicans will become. It could be that Republicans become slightly more woke while Democrats become slightly less woke on average, which would bring the two sides closer together, and would still be consistent with my thesis of wokeness peaking overall. Or it could be that more Republicans become aggressively anti-woke, which could lead to Democrats rolling back their wokeness somewhat, to pick up more votes from normies/independents, which could again lead to my prediction coming true - although note that the level of wokeness in US society is not just determined by politicians, but also by corporates, institutions, HR departments, etc.
This market is also not about a single woke issue, such as youth gender transition. It is about all "woke issues" such as race, gender, "fatphobia", etc. taken together.
Market will be resolved according to my best judgement based on the evidence available to me, and may be resolved early if there is a clear peaking evident.
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3.00The resolution criteria are anything but neutral. The way you write it, as if the term "woke" was already clearly predefined, some social justice issues lumped together, you are obviously not aware that the term "woke" as you use it is just a political dogwhistle that can describe a lot of political opinions. Your use of the term has very little to do with the original definition. What is significant is not the positions that are called "woke", they can be anything that is not conservative, what is significant is who uses the term and why. 10 years ago there were the same progressive ideas as today without being called "woke" by right-wingers. It's quite absurd to think that you can measure whether politicians are becoming more or less "woke". What you are really betting on here is wether right wing media will still use the term as much in the future. It will be impossible to resolve this market objectively. Even if you ignore the fact, that you could not possibly measure wokism in politics, how would you of all people be able to tell when it has "peaked"? If you resolve it at your own discretion, then I personally would not want to bet on this market, because one can see from the description that you probably live in an echo chamber of right-wing media. Resolution of this market solely depends on what media you consume and what you draw from it.
"What is significant is not the positions that are called 'woke', they can be anything that is not conservative..."
I'm not arguing against your general point, but there is a strong distinction between woke and non-woke policies that conservatives typically oppose. For example: universal healthcare, wealth taxes, mass transit infrastructure spending, rent control/stabilization, college debt cancellation, abortion access, gun control etc., etc. are all progressive-adjacent policies but not ever branded as "woke" (prove me wrong!).