Currently, there is a reported outbreak of African Swine Fever going through China [1]. No large number (proportional to the Chinese pig population) of pigs have been reported as culled so far as I can tell.
The last time (four years ago) China had an outbreak of African Swine Fever, there was a roughly 41% drop in the Chinese pig population [2]. Per this paper the outbreak led to a drop in Chinese GDP of 0.78 [3].
This market will resolve yes if a major news outlet reports the current (2023) outbreak is atleast half as bad as the last. Some examples of this are:
If it causes a >20% decline in the Chinese pig population.
If there is a >0.39% reduction in the counterfactual GDP of China was observed.
If the price of pork reaches 31.7 JAN2023 yuan / kg in 2023 (there was a 34 yuan increase in the price of pork in 2019; half of that is 17, the JAN2023 price of pork is 14.7 yuan, 14.7+17=31.7). Thanks to @Duncn for doing the research here!
All reports would need to be from a source I deem reputable (major news outlet, nature published research paper, etc). If there are no reports, this will resolve as No.
[1] https://zeihan.com/famine-the-ultimate-country-killer/
[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00362-1
Note: This market closes 01MARCH2024 - if there are no reports (about african swine fever in 2023) meeting the above criteria for yes by then I will close the market as No.
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As a heads up, I expect to resolve this no in march based on my cursory google searches.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-2023-pork-output-jumps-to-record-high-of-57.94-million-tons
I'd guess they're better prepared for this bc of the havoc the past outbreak wrought. Also this article seems to suggest the outbreak is not getting out of hand: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-pig-farms-battle-new-surge-african-swine-fever-2023-03-15/
@Duncn as I assume the baseline price of pork is not 0, 27 yuan (inflation adjusted) would not be the point at which it counts as half as bad.
Per my read on the intent of your question though, yes. If pork prices raise half as much (inflation adjusted) as they did in 2019, that would count.
@RobertCousineau From the above source, " At the start of the swine epidemic, that price was roughly 20 yuan per kilogram." At the peak it was at 54 yuan/kilo, which is a 2.7x increase.
As of January 13, 2023, the price was 14.71 yuan / kg ( https://www.thepigsite.com/news/2023/01/china-january-2023 ), so a 2.7x increase would be 39.7 yuan / kg; I don't know if these are the numbers you'd want to use, but if so, arguably, 'half as much' would mean a 1.35x increase, to 19.8 yuan / kg. I'm guessing you might e thinking something more like half of the 34 yuan increase, resulting in a 'half-as-bad' price of 31.7 yuan / kg. These are substantially different, so it's be best to clarify this early.
@Duncn I quite appreciate the research you put in here. Your bio is accurate - you are a very nice frog!
You are correct in assuming I am meaning half of the 34 yuan increase. I'll go ahead and edit the description now.
See also this Reuters report for information on the current outbreak: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-pig-farms-battle-new-surge-african-swine-fever-2023-03-15/