When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?
Basic
6
Ṁ439
2050
7%
2023-2025
12%
2026-2028
12%
2029-2031
12%
2032-2034
10%
2035-2037
10%
2038-2040
10%
2041-2043
10%
2044-2046
10%
2047-2049
5%
2050 or later

This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.

This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.

I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.

Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.

See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world

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