When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?
5
338
Ṁ84Ṁ390
2050
1D
1W
1M
ALL
5%
2023-2025
7%
2026-2028
7%
2029-2031
15%
2032-2034
7%
2035-2037
7%
2038-2040
7%
2041-2043
7%
2044-2046
7%
2047-2049
32%
2050 or later
This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.
This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.
I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.
Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Related questions
By when will Malaria be Eradicated?
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
51% chance
Will there be a worldwide bedbug pestilence by the end of 2024?
27% chance
Will guinea worm disease be eradicated before Jimmy Carter dies?
7% chance
Will SARS-CoV-2 be eradicated by 2100?
54% chance
When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?
Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?
37% chance
Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?
57% chance
Will the WHO achieve its goal to eradicate malaria in 30 countries by 2030?
36% chance
Will a crop disease/fungus/blight significantly decrease North American crop yields before 2026?
39% chance