Will an AI/LLM/Set of ML Agents/Other Machine Learning amalgamation be able to generate the output of the ~200 man years of work a software company puts into a stable 1.0 piece of software including manual or technical documentation and a passing test suite ready for release.

Will this output be able to come from a prompt like "Software that enables users to describe potential future world situations and news filters/triggers then map potential trades against those outcomes such that the portfolios can be modeled and ranked and the best trades executed against news triggers"

Resolution Criteria: The capabilities above are publicly demonstrated by the close date. The ~200 years of man effort is subjective but I will tend towards generosity here, if the other criteria are met. The outcomes of providing running executables, a manual and passing tests will be judged by me, but should be verifiable by the release of the output by the demonstrating group by anyone for this to resolve yes. I will be reasonably generous on the prompt used but it should be for something similarly involved as I have described above.

This is my estimate at an approximately correct order of magnitude correlation from mid budget film man-effort to software man-effort, which I am much more familiar with. This is part of a group of a few different markets I am working on releasing exploring the technical capacities implied by https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener