Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2110?
Basic
9
Ṁ210
2110
33%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2110, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.

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Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png

Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

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Even the bots are not confident.

In star trek there is no Dyson Swarm at all, and they have warp engines. I'm putting 1% of the sun's energy more likely at 2900.

By then they'll all be wearing futuristic looking leather looking flight suits and only then will they have the confidence to build such projects.

@VAPOR it's possible that star trek is not a reliable source of truth regarding the future

predicts NO

@VAPOR but I agree with you in that I'm quite confident about the whole suits thing

@RemNiFHfMN it's a sign of the times, if they're still wearing vaguely historical uniforms and not something with either all black or silver/gold flight suits, ideally with techno-widgets sticking out of them, then the time of Dyson anything hasn't yet arrived, thats when they've given up on historical constraints and have given in to utopia/dystopia accelerationism

Up until that point the sun will be a site of interplanetary heritage preserved for future generations

predicts NO

@VAPOR aesthetics >> acceleration

@RemNiFHfMN when historical aesthetics have been purely replaced with something entirely synthetic so will the aesthetics of technological progress become purely synthetic, like the history of earth itself will be unchained from the future of earthlings, at that point home will be the universe, earth will be a grave, and leather with externally visible microchips will herald the Dyson Spheres construction and Greenpeace will be banned

predicts NO

@VAPOR perhaps the synthetic is the aesthetic. The fire is in the image of the human mind

@RemNiFHfMN they'll still have navy inspired flight suits till at least 2500, unless we are conquered by Klingons

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