Will the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge (rail bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
Will the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge (rail bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
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1kṀ16kresolved Jan 4
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Resolves to YES if at any time in 2024 the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than 48 hours.
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bought Ṁ2,000 NO3mo
@mods Resolves NO, creator unavailable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge?wprov=sfla1
bought Ṁ40 YES12mo
what?
Once Ukraine has more reach, which it will likely get, that bridge will surely be the primary target. I'm giving this a 80%
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.