
Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
8
150Ṁ1622100
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Apr 14, 11:13am: Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg be discovered or created before 2100? → Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created by humans before 2100?
Apr 14, 11:13am: Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created by humans before 2100? → Will any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
predictedNO 1y
To exclude quantum nonsense that only allegedly exists for 10^-20 seconds before evaporating, setting the lower threshold to 1kg
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will humans create a black hole by 2100?
10% chance
Will an artificial black hole be created before 2040?
4% chance
Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?
5% chance
Will someone fall into a black hole by 2100?
4% chance
What will be the distance in light years to the nearest known black hole in 2030?
Will any new animal species of at least 1kg be discovered before 2028?
87% chance
Will the view that black holes filled with negative pressure explain the expansion of the Universe be the most supported hypothesis in 2030?
7% chance
Will a graviton be directly observed in a peer-reviewed paper before 2100?
38% chance
Will I consider either of these Duncan Farrah et al Black Hole papers to be significant before 2033?
24% chance
Is there currently a black hole inside the Earth?
6% chance