Will Lp(a)-reducing therapy cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?
2
420
2031
56%
chance

Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Lp(a)-reducing therapy drops below $2000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts, generics, or insurance adjustments may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2031. The therapy must achieve a reduction in Lp(a) levels by at least 70% to qualify.


Key Details:

  • Price Measurement: The price considered will be the average annual cost for a standard dosage as prescribed for an adult patient.

  • Verification: The price will be verified through publicly available data from reputable sources such as healthcare databases, insurance company formularies, or pharmaceutical company pricing information.

  • Timeline: The market will resolve based on the prices available before January 1st, 2031.


Resolution Criteria:

  • Yes: If by January 1st 2031, the average annual cost of Lp(a)-reducing therapy for a standard dosage is found to be less than $2000 in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), and the therapy achieves at least a 70% reduction in Lp(a) levels, this market will resolve to "Yes."

  • No: If the price remains $2000 or higher in fewer than 4 of these countries, or if the therapy does not achieve at least a 70% reduction in Lp(a) levels, this market will resolve to "No."


Additional Information:

  • The market takes into consideration any form of price reduction, including but not limited to discounts, generic versions, and insurance reimbursements, as long as the out-of-pocket cost to the patient averages less than $2000 per year.

  • Adjustments for inflation or changes in standard dosage guidelines will not be factored into the resolution of this market.

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Given your recent markets, if it's not too personal to ask, are you or a loved one suffering from atherosclerosis?

@TheAllMemeingEye not that I'm aware of! I do some work that's cardiac-adjacent so going through the list of questions I think might be relevant over the next few years based on what's on my radar. Probs will switch back to cancer questions soon to add some that are a bit more specific, but I've got a less of a knowledge base there.

@TheAllMemeingEye I was initially going to go for "Will we get a cure for heart disease before 2035?", but then got really into researching ongoing clinical trials and stuff. There's so many things for cancer though, I don't know where to start.

@RemNi ah ok, good to hear, I have no specialist knowledge in this area but was getting worried that the seemingly sudden switch from sci-fi futurism to such a specific illness was a cry for help

@TheAllMemeingEye My Kernel Methods question was the cry for help

@TheAllMemeingEye Also, fun fact: atherosclerosis kills about the same (and more in some countries I believe) number of people as cancer does. There's just way less cultural awareness about it.

@RemNi yeah, society isn't great at scope sensitivity lol

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