Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Keytruda drops below $10k (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2030. This question primarily focuses on the out-of-pocket cost for an uninsured patient to account for variations in national healthcare reimbursement and prescription policies.
Keytruda questions:
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-2000-p
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-5000-p
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-10000 (this question)
Key Details:
Current Cost: As of 2024, the cost of Keytruda (pembrolizumab), a commonly used cancer treatment, typically exceeds $10k per year in many regions.
Price Measurement: The price considered will be the average annual cost for a standard dosage as prescribed for an adult patient.
Verification: The price will be verified through publicly available data from reputable sources such as healthcare databases, insurance company formularies, or pharmaceutical company pricing information.
Resolution Criteria:
Yes: If before January 1st, 2030, the average annual cost of Keytruda for a standard dosage is found to be less than $10k in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), this market will resolve to "Yes."
No: If the price remains $10,000 or higher in at least 6 of these 9 countries, this market will resolve to "No."
The market takes into consideration various forms of price reduction, including but not limited to discounts and generic versions, as long as the out-of-pocket cost to the patient averages less than $10k per year. Adjustments for inflation or changes in standard dosage guidelines will not be factored into the resolution of this market. The exchange rate value is taken into account for different currencies compared to the US dollar.