Resolves as YES if the annual cost of Keytruda drops below $2000 (US) in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy. Various factors such as discounts and generics may contribute to the price reduction before January 1st, 2030. This question primarily focuses on the out-of-pocket cost for an uninsured patient to account for variations in national healthcare reimbursement and prescription policies.
Keytruda questions:
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-2000-p (this question)
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-5000-p
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-10000
Different drugs:
/RemNi/will-keytruda-cost-less-than-2000-p (this question)
/RemNi/will-pcsk9-inhibitors-cost-less-tha-46en6y2yh0
Key Details:
Current Cost: As of 2024, the cost of Keytruda (pembrolizumab), a commonly used cancer treatment, typically exceeds $2000 per year in many regions.
Price Measurement: The price considered will be the average annual cost for a standard dosage as prescribed for an adult patient.
Verification: The price will be verified through publicly available data from reputable sources such as healthcare databases, insurance company formularies, or pharmaceutical company pricing information.
Resolution Criteria:
Yes: If before January 1st, 2030, the average annual cost of Keytruda for a standard dosage is found to be less than $2000 in at least 4 of the specified countries (USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy), this market will resolve to "Yes."
No: If the price remains $5,000 or higher in at least 6 of these 9 countries, this market will resolve to "No."
The market takes into consideration various forms of price reduction, including but not limited to discounts and generic versions, as long as the out-of-pocket cost to the patient averages less than $2000 per year. Adjustments for inflation or changes in standard dosage guidelines will not be factored into the resolution of this market. The exchange rate value is taken into account for different currencies compared to the US dollar.
1,000
Standard adult dosing is 200 mg every 3 weeks or 400 mg every 6 weeks, so a year is about 3.47 g, or about 34.7 × 100 mg vials. That means $2,000/year ≈ $58 per 100 mg vial. Current prices are nowhere close: the U.S. list price is $12,272 per 200 mg dose; the U.K. list price is £2,630 per 100 mg vial; France lists about €2,191.98 per vial; Canada submissions use CAD $4,400 per 100 mg vial; Australia’s PBS entries show around AUD $7,356–$7,504 per 200 mg or AUD $14,621–$14,871 per 400 mg; and an Indian oncology retailer lists ₹158,250 per 100 mg vial.
https://www.keytruda.com/financial-support/