Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
Basic
33
2.2k
2028
78%
chance

Resolves as YES if at least 10 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2028.

Different number of robots:

/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-5e781221ca5f

/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e510db70b0a2

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-26fcd74c767f (this question)

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-280c533c681a

/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-f9e28894d8b5

/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-4ac19368e941

/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-fb6538ce1f2f

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-ec311a558859

/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756

/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-d15d83df960e

Different years:

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-26fcd74c767f (this question)

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-c55c48255552

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-9dad526dc238

Other questions for 2028:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-95b65e96092d

These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.

Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.

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Cold fusion posted a good Robotic overview recently.

https://youtu.be/QwAYJPjW2gI?feature=shared

Includes a quote that the robotic market is projected to be $216 billion by 2032

Boston Dynamics retired hydraulic version of Altas - but announces all electric version - https://www.businessinsider.com/boston-dynamics-new-fully-electric-humanoid-robot-atlas-2024-4?amp

Funding for Humanoid Robots is already at record levels for 2024 YTD - currently at $775M across 3 deals according to CB insights - https://www.cbinsights.com/research/humanoid-robotics-tech-trends-2023/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

predicts YES

Apptronic's Apollo specs - https://apptronik.com/news-collection/apptronik-unveils-apollo

  • 160 pounds in weight,

  • 5 foot 8 inches tall,

  • ability to lift 55 pounds

  • 4 hour runtime

predicts YES

Worth keeping an eye on these companies
- Boston Dynamics Atlas - https://bostondynamics.com/atlas/
- Agility Robotics - Agility anticipates production capacity of hundreds of Digit robots in the first year, with the capability to scale to more than 10,000 robots per year.
- Figure - https://www.figure.ai/master-plan
- Apptronic - https://apptronik.com/about-us

The hard part will be sourcing the information on production numbers as most are not listed companies.