Can you clarify "manufactured"? Do college/high-school science projects count? Do prototypes a la Boston Dynamics' stuff count as long as they're humanoid? Do they have to be available for purchase to the public?

@inaimathi robots made for educational purposes would qualify provided that they fulfill the criteria. Current Boston dynamics Atlas robots would currently not qualify since (last time I checked) they don't have hands to manipulate objects

@inaimathi don't have to be available to the public, but there needs to be concrete evidence of their existence, capabilities and number

@inaimathi my sense is that, unless something strange happens, the number of "mass manufactured" (in the sense of a large number of instances of the same design) robots fulfilling this criteria will significantly exceed the number of bespoke machines at the time of this market's resolution

@RemNi Right; this is the main reason I'm asking. I'm still inclined to bet "NO" here, but I wanted to clarify that the underlying question is actually something like "Will we be mass-producing humanoid robots". The futures I'm predicting are either

1. Autonomous humanoid robots end up having the right marketable/useable/desirable/expensive tradeoff, so we end up getting hundreds of thousands to millions of them
2. Autonomous robots end up being useful and/or desirable, but the humanoid form factor doesn't have the above tradeoff, so we end up getting lots of robots but they're quadrupeds or copters or something else

3. Autonomous robots don't end up being mass produced

I think #2 is the likeliest here. In that future, there are probably still going to be some humanoid robots produced for hobby/educational purposes, and it might even be more than 2000, but I wanted to know if "manufactured" would apply.

@inaimathi Yeah hobby/educational humanoid robots would still qualify. It does get more challenging to resolve this market if we end up in the future where there is no mass production of humanoid robots, since the bespoke models are harder to count. However, in that future the other markets with higher targets would be confidently resolved as NO.

If you think #2 is likeliest, then I would suggest not betting on the 2K market, and save your NO bets for the higher target markets (e.g. 100K, 200K, ...)

@RemNi Do you have a sense of how many have been manufactured to date?

@tr fewer than 2K

@inaimathi

(In reply to thread further up) Boston dynamics just released this video: https://twitter.com/BostonDynamics/status/1754564972913332703?t=3tgCvmFeggjnkL1HDXqgUw&s=19