500,000+ customers in the USA are without power due to inclement winter weather by EOD 1/25/2026?

155

Ṁ1kṀ48k

Jan 26

67%

chance

ALL

Context: The southeastern USA is expected to receive a potentially damaging winter storm this upcoming weekend, as reported here: https://apnews.com/article/winter-weather-snow-ice-weekend-storm-ba67d30f05cbe14e9568907f09d2f13f

I will do my best to resolve based on credible reports of power outage numbers from news agencies or power companies.

Update 2026-01-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on simultaneous outages (not cumulative) using data from poweroutage.us. The market will resolve YES if customers without power exceeds 520,000 (accounting for ~20,000 base rate) and the proximate cause is extreme winter weather.

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@Eliza The https://poweroutage.us site that Tim linked makes resolution convenient for me, so let’s use that (meaning that resolution will be based on simultaneous rather than cumulative outages). Since the base rate for power outages appears to be ~20,000, if the count of customers without power exceeds 520,000 and the proximate cause is likely to be extreme winter weather, this market will resolve YES.

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At the current rate of (linear) increase, it'll grow to 500k+ by EOD 2026.01.25, There's no reason to believe that it's going to be linear though.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@crowlsyong weak hands? not enough growth for you?

opened a Ṁ42 NO at 92% order

@MarySmith you underestimate my superpower- I usually lose. If you do the opposite of what I do, you win 9/10 times lol

I'm just guessing that Texas, despite its weird energy infrastructure, is going to hold strong.

@Dynd wanna do 10k @ 60?

@MarySmith sure

bought Ṁ50 NO

@MarySmith MARY that's a lot of mana for folks like us! I might do 1k if but lemme think about it

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 60% order

@Dynd I put it 250 mana at 60 haha. you can have the rest

bought Ṁ10,000 YES

@Dynd gl 👍

@crowlsyong I've been studying under @Tumbles just you wait!

Alright folks, we're past 100,000 🙈

bought Ṁ250 YES

Buying insurance against my annoyance.

Anyone want to make related markets for specific states or regions?

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 70% order

You might also try to watch https://poweroutage.us/

@polymathematic

Current tally, for posterity:

@Eliza

Over 30,000. Can't tell if that is normal variation or early storm effects in Texas.

@Eliza 48000, seems to be a spike in Texas right now:

I hope someone will share updates from this site every 4-8 hours, it will be interesting to watch.

@Eliza 90,000, so still 430,000 short of the required amount with 1 day to go:

@Eliza 130,000

@Eliza

Just went to check for new ice charts, here's what I found.

Probability of Ice > 0.25 inch, day 2 (~Saturday):

Probability of Ice > 0.25 inch, day 3 (~Sunday):

I think we would generally consider 0.25 inch of ice to be extremely disruptive.

The weather reports I saw indicated there may be widespread ice coming this weekend. Ice has a tendency to cause power outages and if it is as widespread as predicted that could easily add up to 500k. Add on other factors of chaos and it seems totally possible..

@Eliza Huge chunk of Louisiana, Arkansas, etc. has a 50% chance of 0.25 to 0.5 inches of freezing rain, that alone would cause significant widespread damages if possible.

This analysis does not account for all the other effects of the storm across the rest of the country. I'm happy with this trading over 50%. Where are the weather people on here to tell me how I'm wrong.