2026 US tornado count above 1,400 by December 31, 2026
3
100Ṁ362026
52%
chance
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Will the total number of confirmed tornadoes in the United States during 2026 exceed 1,350?
Context: The U.S. averages approximately 1,200-1,333 tornadoes annually. In 2024, there were 1,855 tornadoes (second-highest on record), and 2025 is tracking at 1,283 tornadoes as of October. This market resolves based on the final official tornado count from NOAA's National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.
Resolution: This market resolves YES if the final 2026 tornado count published by NOAA/SPC exceeds 1,300. Resolves NO if the count is 1,300 or below.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ and https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes/
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