Will sabotage cause 250k+ power outage in a U.S. megacity by 2026?
2
100Ṁ30
Dec 31
15%
chance
5

Resolves YES if

Between market open and December 31, 2026 (23:59 ET), all of the following occur:

  1. A U.S. metro area with ≥1,000,000 residents experiences a power outage.

  2. At least 250,000 electricity customer accounts lose power.

  3. The outage lasts ≥8 consecutive hours.

  4. Cyber sabotage or physical sabotage of the electric grid is identified as a primary cause in public statements by government authorities or in major media reporting citing investigators, regulators, or the utility.

Resolves NO if

No event meeting all criteria above occurs by the deadline.

Clarifications

  • Outages primarily caused by weather, natural disasters, equipment failure, or human error resolve NO.

  • IT-only cyber incidents that do not cause a qualifying power outage resolve NO.

  • Rolling or intermittent outages qualify only if ≥250,000 customers are without power continuously for ≥8 hours.

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