Will Google be broken into separate companies, by October 9th, 2025?

1kṀ12k

Oct 10

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if some major components of the Google company get broken up due to the breakup plan under antitrust law. If a court ruling forces Google to break up in the near future before market close, that also is sufficient for a YES resolution.
Examples of the major components of Google: Youtube, Android, Search, Ads

(The breakup need not be limited to or include those specific 4 components of the Google company)

Otherwise, resolves NO at the end of October 9, 2025

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Almost all of Google's side projects require the backing of Google's resources

What if Google voluntarily breaks up?

@tmk seems like a NO in that case

Just to confirm, the breakup has to happen by that date? Or would a court ruling that happens by that date and requires a breakup be sufficient?

@Bayesian Clarification boop?

@Tyler31 good question, mb for missing it. the letter of the market and the spirit of the market clash a bit to me. I feel like that (a court ruling meaning the company is about to get broken up) should count. however, if traders consider this a very large possibility and it changes the market probability a lot, I will probably N/A this market and make a new one. I haven't followed this situation enough to know either way.

I didn't know court rulings could even force the company to break up in the future, instead of, like, as an immediate consequence of the court ruling. is that common?

@Bayesian is it common for court rulings to break up a company at all?

Intuitively I’d think there has to be some time for appeals and/or operationalizing the changes (eg what would happen to the stock the day after the announcement)?

I haven’t followed this situation closely nor do I have strong opinions on how to handle the ambiguity.