Resolves YES if some major components of the Google company get broken up due to the breakup plan under antitrust law. If a court ruling forces Google to break up in the near future before market close, that also is sufficient for a YES resolution.
Examples of the major components of Google: Youtube, Android, Search, Ads
(The breakup need not be limited to or include those specific 4 components of the Google company)
Otherwise, resolves NO at the end of October 9, 2025
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Just to confirm, the breakup has to happen by that date? Or would a court ruling that happens by that date and requires a breakup be sufficient?
@Tyler31 good question, mb for missing it. the letter of the market and the spirit of the market clash a bit to me. I feel like that (a court ruling meaning the company is about to get broken up) should count. however, if traders consider this a very large possibility and it changes the market probability a lot, I will probably N/A this market and make a new one. I haven't followed this situation enough to know either way.
I didn't know court rulings could even force the company to break up in the future, instead of, like, as an immediate consequence of the court ruling. is that common?
@Bayesian is it common for court rulings to break up a company at all?
Intuitively I’d think there has to be some time for appeals and/or operationalizing the changes (eg what would happen to the stock the day after the announcement)?
I haven’t followed this situation closely nor do I have strong opinions on how to handle the ambiguity.