Will Google be broken into separate companies, by October 9th, 2025?

1kṀ3929

Oct 10

10%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if some major components of the Google company get broken up due to the breakup plan under antitrust law. If a court ruling forces Google to break up in the near future before market close, that also is sufficient for a YES resolution.
Examples of the major components of Google: Youtube, Android, Search, Ads

(The breakup need not be limited to or include those specific 4 components of the Google company)

Otherwise, resolves NO at the end of October 9, 2025

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Almost all of Google's side projects require the backing of Google's resources

What if Google voluntarily breaks up?

@tmk seems like a NO in that case

Just to confirm, the breakup has to happen by that date? Or would a court ruling that happens by that date and requires a breakup be sufficient?

@Bayesian Clarification boop?

@Tyler31 good question, mb for missing it. the letter of the market and the spirit of the market clash a bit to me. I feel like that (a court ruling meaning the company is about to get broken up) should count. however, if traders consider this a very large possibility and it changes the market probability a lot, I will probably N/A this market and make a new one. I haven't followed this situation enough to know either way.

I didn't know court rulings could even force the company to break up in the future, instead of, like, as an immediate consequence of the court ruling. is that common?

@Bayesian is it common for court rulings to break up a company at all?

Intuitively I’d think there has to be some time for appeals and/or operationalizing the changes (eg what would happen to the stock the day after the announcement)?

I haven’t followed this situation closely nor do I have strong opinions on how to handle the ambiguity.

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