Will a company replace Google's dominant market position by 2028?
13
518
2028
25%
chance

Google gets replaced in any market in which it is currently dominant, this resolves YES.

  1. Search

  2. Website visits

  3. Digital ads

  4. Video

  5. Maps

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I was thinking in terms of the stock market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alphabet_Inc.

predicts NO

@tfae You’re right in this case Microsoft would be bigger, but I don’t feel like Microsoft is dominating Google marketshare in search, the most visited website, Search, Ads, Youtube, Cloud (Azure cloud is beating GCP). That said analysis of this point is a good idea.

predicts YES

@ErnestLee It sounds like you’re still workshopping the criteria a bit. Care to clarify if this resolves based on stock market or market share of certain industries? I suspect there are several different interesting questions that this market could spawn.

@Charlie @tfae I think the fairest interpretation is any company that replaces Google's dominant market position in the same market. It doesn't make sense to say a company in different market replaces Google's dominant market position.

  1. search (Google Search is used more often than Microsoft Bing)

  2. the most visited website (the top 2 are google https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_visited_websites)

  3. ads (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/06/googles-ad-tech-dominance-spurs-more-antitrust-charges-report-says/)

  4. youtube (as far as I can tell youtube overtakes tiktok)

Resolving directly on stock market doesn't make sense to me, as the top 3 are Microsoft, Armco and Apple with Google being 4th. Can be clarified.

Since Google is not dominant in cloud hosting as of today - September 4th 2023. I will remove Google from cloud hosting consideration. (33% AWS, 20% Azure, 10% GCP) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cloud-market-share-whos-winning-losing-sanjay-t-s/

So for hypothetical example Microsoft Bing being the dominant search engine would be a valid replacement for Google Search.

predicts YES

So if google gets replaced in any market in which it is currently dominant, this resolves YES? Or all of them?

  1. Search

  2. Website visits

  3. Digital ads

  4. Video

  5. Maps

@Charlie I am in favour of this.

To be clear I mean, this resolves YES on any of the following:

  1. Search

  2. Website visits

  3. Digital ads

  4. Video

  5. Maps

predicts YES

@ErnestLee Cool! Probably worth updating the description with the firmer resolution criteria since sometimes folks don't think to dig through the comments.

How will "market position" be measured? In particular, is it market share in search engines only, or being the most visited website overall? Which source will be used for this? Google has multiple businesses (Search, Ads, YouTube, Cloud) – does it count if one of them are dethroned?

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