Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?
77
975
1.4K
2030
12%
chance

Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous.

This market mirrors a Twitter-based gentleman’s wager between Patio11 and Mike Dudas but resolution is based on ground truth not that wager.

https://x.com/patio11/status/1745510066281656574?s=46&t=NAASaDpWsx9Lm3_OYE2hCQ

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This question is different from the news about Vanguard not allowing purchases of Bitcoin ETFs: It requires Vanguard to operate their own Bitcoin ETF, which seems very unlikely.

reposted

Reposting this as it's both an important question, and because I want to promote a norm of "turning Twitter disagreements into a markets"!

I reserve the right to bet in this market but will let it stabilize before doing so. My estimate as of this comment is below 5.