Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?
80
1k
Ṁ29kṀ1.5k
2030
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous.
This market mirrors a Twitter-based gentleman’s wager between Patio11 and Mike Dudas but resolution is based on ground truth not that wager.
https://x.com/patio11/status/1745510066281656574?s=46&t=NAASaDpWsx9Lm3_OYE2hCQ
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
This question is different from the news about Vanguard not allowing purchases of Bitcoin ETFs: It requires Vanguard to operate their own Bitcoin ETF, which seems very unlikely.
Related questions
Will Bitcoin hit $1M by 2030?
23% chance
Will any cryptocurrency have a higher market cap than Bitcoin on Jan. 1st, 2030?
14% chance
Will Apple release a Bitcoin hardware wallet before 2030?
22% chance
Will Vanguard offer Bitcoin ETF before the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will bitcoin hit $90k before 2031-09-27?
74% chance
Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?
25% chance
Will bitcoin hit $300k before 2040-01-23?
50% chance
Will Bitcoin hit 100k before Jan 1st 2025?
26% chance
Will Ethereum ETF be approved before the January 1st, 2025?
44% chance
Will the SEC approve one or more Bitcoin ETF in January 2024
77% chance