Labour has set a target to build 1.5 million homes over five years. This market evaluates whether the government will achieve this goal by the end of their term.

Resolution will be based on official housing completion statistics published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), eg. from here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the total number of new homes completed in the United Kingdom between July 5, 2024, and July 4, 2029 or the next general election, whichever is soonest. The primary source for this data will be the Office for National Statistics (ONS) housing completion statistics, accessible here: (beta.ons.gov.uk). If ONS data is unavailable or incomplete, alternative official sources may be used.

Background

In July 2024, the UK Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, committed to building 1.5 million new homes over five years, aiming to address the nation's housing shortage (theguardian.com). This target requires an average of 300,000 new homes annually, a figure not achieved since the 1970s (bbc.com). To facilitate this, the government has reinstated mandatory housing targets for local authorities and proposed reforms to planning laws, including the development of new towns and the release of certain green belt areas for construction (housingtoday.co.uk).

Considerations

Achieving this ambitious target faces several challenges:

• Planning Permissions: The number of homes granted planning permission in England fell to its lowest since 2014, necessitating a significant increase to meet the annual target (ft.com).

• Labour Shortages: The construction industry is experiencing a shortage of skilled workers, exacerbated by factors such as Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, which could impede the pace of building (reuters.com).

• Economic Factors: High interest rates and material costs may affect both the supply side (builders) and demand side (buyers) of the housing market, potentially slowing down construction and sales (ft.com).

Traders should monitor these factors, as they could influence the likelihood of the government meeting its housing completion targets by July 4, 2029.