If Labour are elected at the next general election, will the UK build >1.5m new homes by 2030?
3
18
100
2030
52%
chance

The UK Labour party has stated their policy to liberalise planning, build on currently protected green belt land around London, and expects this to result in 1.5 million new homes built in the first five years of a Labour government.

https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labours-housing-plan-how-well-protect-our-natural-spaces-and-free-up-grey-belt-land-for-building/

Will housing starts for the first five years of the next government total over 1.5 million? I anticipate this being settled based on Q1 2025 to Q4 2029 of this data, but it could be earlier if the general election is before October

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted

If Labour or a Labour led coalition aren't elected in the next general election, this market resolves as N/A

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How does this resolve if Labour are a one-term government that lasts less than 5 years?

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