GiveWell researches and funds highly cost-effective global health and development programs, reporting grantmaking on a grant year running 1 February to 31 January. In its 2025 grant year (1 Feb 2025–31 Jan 2026) it approved $418 million across 131 grants to 69 organizations, the most grants it has made in a year. In 2025 it generally considered opportunities its research estimated at 8x or more of its cost-effectiveness benchmark ("8x cash"), with the average grant around 16x. For 2026, GiveWell lists "grant $500 million or more to cost-effective programs" as a top priority. It has suggested to some supporters that an updated target is $800m.
GiveWell describes its binding constraint as research and vetting capacity, not a shortage of donor money: it has been expanding its team to find and fund more opportunities. In December 2025, Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) committed to set aside $175 million in 2026 for GiveWell-recommended opportunities. Historically GiveWell has sometimes held "rollover" funds when it raised more than it could grant at its bar (e.g. in 2021), before expanding grantmaking and lowering its effective bar.
This question asks whether GiveWell reaches the $800 million level it set as its own 2026 target - a proxy for whether it can scale grantmaking to its stated capacity.
Resolves 'yes' if GiveWell reports approving at least US $500 million (nominal) in grants to cost-effective programs during its 2026 grant year, defined as 1 February 2026 to 31 January 2027; otherwise 'no'.
Sources:
- GiveWell 2025 grantmaking recap: https://blog.givewell.org/2026/02/26/givewells-2025-grantmaking-record-grants-expanded-reach-crisis-response/
- Coefficient Giving commits $175M: https://blog.givewell.org/2025/12/18/coefficient-giving-commits-175-million/
- GiveWell rollover funds FAQ (note: 2021, partly out of date): https://www.givewell.org/rollover-funds
1,000