As of May 2024, 143 UN member states have formally recognized the State of Palestine. Several additional countries have signaled possible recognition in the near future. This market asks whether, by September 22, 2025 (during the UN High-Level Conference ), the total number of UN member states recognizing Palestine will reach 155 or more, or remain at 154 or fewer.
Resolution will be based on official United Nations records of formal recognition as of the closing date.
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@REDSKY in this link you shared: "Countries that recognise Palestine
The State of Palestine is recognised as a sovereign nation by 157 of the 193 UN member states, representing 81 percent of the international community."
therefore "154 or fewer" should resolve = NO
@REDSKY based on the question title and the resolution description, the requests formalized at the UN after 22nd Sep shouldnt count, right?
This is what I have in mind:
as of 19th September = 147
planned recognition by Australia, Canada, France, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino (+6) = 153
not warranted it will happen. Not sure if it will happen already on Monday or later in the week
UK - several conditions, waiting for Israel to agree to a cease-fire... I assume they prefer to wait to see if the additional pressure changes something, and they won't announce it on Monday... If they do = 154
The tricky part is Belgium. Apparently at the UN they will declare their intention to recognize Palestine, but they will only execute it once the last Israeli hostage has been released by Hamas.
"The United Kingdom is expected to announce its recognition Sunday before a formal declaration Monday, according to two people familiar with the plan."
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/palestine-statehood-trump-un-00572206
My assumption about UK timing might be wrong.
@MiguelLM UK actually did it, despite opposition https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-formally-recognises-palestinian-state
@MiguelLM 147 + (UK + Canada + Australia) + Portugal + Malta + France = 153. All the chances are for 155+.