I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.
Setup phase:
Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:
[common name] - [scientific name]
Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus
A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.
Selection phase:
The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.
Discussion phase:
Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it.
Battle phase:
The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.
By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.
An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.
If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.
I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.
I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.
Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.
If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.
I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.
Medals:
🥉: Battles won as Underdog
🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner
🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)
Dashboard to derivative markets
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
I will not trade on this market.
The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.
This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.
1,000People are also trading
Discussion phase #56!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Vs.
@GazDownright with the Underdog
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Discuss!
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Discussion phase #55!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Discuss!
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Battle phase #55!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Habitat: Gulf of Mexico, offshore
The leopard seal finds itself in the warm, warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Its thick blubber does little good in this environment.
From what I see on the Wikipedia pages for these animals, it doesn't look like they share much habitat at all. Their ocean habitats seem to be exactly not what the other one is.
A pod of dolphins approach the leopard seal. Both the championed dolphin and the leopard seal are hydrodynamically built, so they are both very mobile. However, the leopard seal can only do short bursts of speed before it begins to overheat and needs to rest.
The leopard seal rushes the pod, but the dolphins scatter. After this short burst, the leopard seal is overheated and has run out of stamina. It cannot easily vent the heat off because the blubber acts as an insulator against dispelling heat -- the environment can't easily accept the heat.
The dolphins identify that this is a predator that isn't worth messing with and, instead of hanging around, decide to hang out elsewhere. The leopard seal tries to move as little as possible to prevent itself from overheating further, but it isn't immobile!
In a reversal of expectations, the dolphins have fled, and the leopard seal remains in The Field of Battle. By the rules set out in this tournament, the leopard seal technically wins!
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_seal
"They are covered in a thick layer of blubber that helps to keep them warm while in the cold temperatures of the Antarctic."
AI was used to check my intuition on how the blubber factors in. https://claude.ai/share/f1f3e5d6-f0d4-41ec-bb09-4f03ff418cc4
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Discussion phase #54!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Discuss!
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@Quroe Hmm. lowland gorilla. Was thinking how mountain gorilla's might not be phazed by cold. Also, I bet gorilla's can swim. Well, it is furry anyhow, so some insulation is available. The cold will slow it down big time though, where as the penguin will be pretty much manic fast in the water. But if the penguin is on an ice shelf of any size, there isn't a humongous advantage for the penguin, just an edge. [Edit: the gorilla might recognize it needs energy to keep it's core temperature up, so it might move on the penguin with desperation, they aren't obligate herbivores in a constraining sense]
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/animals/penguins/emperor-penguin/breeding-cycle/
> During the chick rearing period there is a lot of activity in the colony – parents coming and going, chicks looking for anybody willing to feed them – there is a lot of walking around and calling. Both parents take turns brooding their offspring until the youngsters are able to stand on the ice by themselves. By September, the chicks have grown a thick cover of down and are developing quite rapidly. Growing requires a lot of energy so they are always hungry. It now takes both parents to go out and gather food for the youngsters. When the little ones are left at the colony they form huddles, especially at night, to keep warm.
It's a little unclear if we're at the "both parents go out and gather food for the youngsters" time of year right now, or if one of them will be staying with the chick. If the gorilla is unlucky enough to encounter the penguin while it's swimming, it seems very one-sided in favor of the penguin, but they may be either at the colony keeping the chick warm or walking potentially tens of miles across the ice to or from the ocean. If that happens the outcome seems less clear.
Battle phase #54!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Habitat: Antarctic ice shelf
The gorilla finds itself on an Antarctic ice shelf. It is colder than the gorilla can even fathom.
Along comes a waddle of emperor penguins! Our two champions notice each other at about the same time, but the gorilla can't pay much mind to the penguin while it desperately tries to maintain body temperature.
The penguin and the rest of the waddle continue to mosy on by, paying little mind to the gorilla, who is frankly freaking out in its own world. Neither animal really has much interest in engaging, and continues with its own preoccupations.
The penguin, clearly in its element, continues to survive and thrive. The gorilla collapses into a ball and becomes anchored in place to conserve heat.
This is a knockout by immobility. The penguin wins!
---Places I went for research---
See previous gorilla research here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_penguin
Flightless
"Its diet consists primarily of fish, but also includes crustaceans, such as krill, and cephalopods, such as squid."
"The only penguin species that breeds during the Antarctic winter, emperor penguins trek 50–120 km (31–75 mi) over the ice to breeding colonies which can contain up to several thousand individuals."
Those em dashes... Hm... I don't know how I feel about those being here.
Oh God, they're everywhere on this page.
"The tongue is equipped with rear-facing barbs to prevent prey from escaping when caught."
Heavy cold resistance
"[This penguin] can maintain its core temperature from 38.0 °C (100.4 °F) down to −47 °C (−53 °F)."
It can survive comfortably at "−10 to 20 °C (14 to 68 °F)".
Adapted to high-pressure dives that would otherwise cause barotrauma in most terrestrial organisms.
"The emperor penguin has a circumpolar distribution in the Antarctic almost exclusively between the 66° and 77° south latitudes. It almost always breeds on stable pack ice near the coast and up to 18 km (11 mi) offshore. Breeding colonies are usually in areas where ice cliffs and icebergs provide some protection from the wind."
"As a defence against the cold, a colony of emperor penguins forms a compact huddle (also known as the turtle formation)"
Courtship/breeding
"The penguins start courtship in March or April"
Egg laying in May or early June
"After laying, the mother's food reserves are exhausted. She carefully transfers the egg to the male and then returns to the sea for two months to feed."
"There he balances it on the tops of his feet, engulfing it with loose skin and feathers for around 65–75 days until hatching."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PwDFddpo4c
Absolutely incredible footage here. Baby's first swim!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7PlUGbsXlQ
An unlikely ally. Cute!
AI was used to get an understanding of just how rough the environment would be on the gorilla. https://claude.ai/share/1ffdca66-6f9d-4e1c-b1a2-bc0fc81f8635
It seems like the gorilla could withstand the temperature for a short bit. It wouldn't die instantly, but it would not have a good time either.
I'll admit this left little to my imagination, and I probably got much more than what I was asking for in this prompt, but that's what I get for asking Opus 5 on Max thinking settings, I suppose. Oops.
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@TheAllMemeingEye I am aware of the issue.
@Gen @wasabipesto Any ideas on what might be happening? My standard "subscription pings" are not hitting notification inboxes.
That tracks. It was about a week since my last blast. We did an accidental science.
Discussion phase #53!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Lion - Panthera leo
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Discuss! Either way, Prismatic loses a champion.
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Surely the Panthera leo wins over any other animal. It can bite with more than 1000 PSI and has a top speed to 50 mph (although it can only keep that speed for 200 meters or 656 feet)
-Internet comment, circa 2026
@Quroe The winner here is partially determined by which territory the fight happens on. In the ocean, the dolphin has an advantage but on land, the dolphin dies. Panthera leo can swim but the dolphin can't walk in land.
@moobunny I do need to figure out how deep dolphins tend to thrive, though. I haven't done my research yet.
@Eternal The fact that the Underdog gets the habitat advantage is to discourage people from betting a particular competitor up too high. Best to not be too overconfident in a particular champion -- at least use limit orders instead.
Battle phase #53!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Lion - Panthera leo
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Habitat: Gulf of Mexico, offshore
The lion finds itself in the far offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. A pod of dolphins approaches the lion, curious about what it might be.
The lion paddles through the water in a desperate attempt to stay afloat, but it is not suited to this environment. Our championed dolphin makes several passing flybys next to the lion, turning its belly toward it to get a better look at it as it passes back and forth. It's curious about how this creature got this far out at sea.
The lion is spending a lot of energy trying to stay afloat. Our dolphin playfully nuzzles its nose up against the lion in a helpful attempt to keep it afloat, but it's no use. The lion tires, dips in and out of the water's surface, and it eventually surfaces its last.
The lion drowns. The dolphin, mildly entertained and somewhat bewildered by what it has witnessed, wins!
---Places I went for research---
See previous lion research here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEBiym5iQ08
Not exactly the video of lions swimming in deep water I was looking for as a reference, but this is still a cute video of lions being playful with a human.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDzwMXmZibA
This feels more like bouncing off the floor in shallow water, not swimming.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_bottlenose_dolphin
"Common bottlenose dolphins inhabit temperate and tropical oceans throughout the world, absent only from polar waters."
Herding behavior! "As a very social species, the common bottlenose dolphin lives in groups called pods that typically number about 15 individuals"
Echolocation. "This allows dolphin to know the location, shape and size of objects aiding in navigation, communication, hunting, and awareness of predators nearby."
Can communicate with each other.
"Their hunting strategies depend on what they are eating; for example, with fish they will circle the school and use their echolocation to feed on them one by one. They can also stun fish using sonar or smash them into corals depending on their speed."
"Mating behavior of the bottlenose dolphin is polygamous. Although they can breed throughout the year, it mostly occurs in spring, and with a 12 month gestation period mating season and birthing season overlap."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bnur3gHJ0s
Wow, they are cute.
Intelligent, and each dolphin seems to have a personality of its own. You can't characterize them all with the same temperament, so we can assume that the champion for our combat will have the most arguably advantageous character to suit this matchup game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrnPE602sYE
Tierzoo said "delve" in 2019 before AI got to the term.
The dolphin would beat an octopus or shark.
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