MANIFOLD
What is Quroe's favorite animal?
65
Ṁ1.9kṀ43k
2027
2%
[⚔️Frontrunner] Wolf - Canis lupus
2%
[⚔️Underdog] Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉
2%
Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum
2%
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
2%
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
2%
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
2%
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
2%
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
2%
Cat - Felis catus
2%
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
2%
Coyote - Canis latrans
2%
Dog - Canis familiaris
2%
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
2%
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
3%
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
2%
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
2%
Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana
2%
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
2%
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
2%
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus

I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.


Setup phase:

Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:

[common name] - [scientific name]

Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus

A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.

Selection phase:

The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.

Discussion phase:

Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it. 

Battle phase: 

  • The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.

  • By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.

  • An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.

  • If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.

  • I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.

  • I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.

  • Additional clarifications on The Field of Battle, sexual dimorphisms, and how animals spawn into the battle are in this comment and in following comments.

  • Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.

  • Time of year matters.

If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.

I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.

Medals:

🥉: Battles won as Underdog

🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner

🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)

Dashboard to derivative markets


There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

I will not trade on this market.

The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.

This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.

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Discussion phase #22!

@wolf with the Frontrunner

Wolf - Canis lupus

Vs.

@2theMoon (AKA @pureprofit) with the Underdog

Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus

Alright, @wolf, your namesake is on the line. Discuss!

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Discussion phase #22!

@wolf with the Frontrunner

Wolf - Canis lupus

Vs.

@2theMoon (AKA @pureprofit) with the Underdog

Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus

Alright, @wolf, your namesake is on the line. Discuss!

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

My schedule is a bit packed over the next 2 days. I might fail the 48-hour hard deadline if I'm not careful on this one. Please forgive me if I miss the mark.

@Quroe The wolf is going to take one look at the oliphaunts turd, and relocate.

@Quroe Oh no... I can't watch.

I'll take a look a little more if I get a chance, but I think @JussiVilleHeiskanen might be right here. Wolves can take down pretty big prey when in a pack, but not that big. Wikipedia says:

> Like other large Palaeoloxodon species, the tusks of P. namadicus were proportionally large, though no complete tusks are known. One partial tusk was estimated to be 3.66 metres (12.0 ft) long and over 120 kilograms (260 lb) in weight when complete, larger than the largest recorded African bush elephant tusk.[12]

> The mean body mass of the wolf is 40 kg (88 lb), the smallest specimen recorded at 12 kg (26 lb) and the largest at 79.4 kg (175 lb).[46][38]

It looks like a single tusk is about 3 TIMES the mass of an average wolf! Unless the wolf can get in some good bites in a critical place, I'm not sure how else it could beat something so large.

@wolf @Quroe an equalizer could be if you allowed packs, but I don't know how that would play out with others that are even more ambiguously grouped. Not really sure what the numbers are between lone wolves and packs, which is more typical.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen

Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.

If it pack hunts, it can happen if it's on its own habitat home turf.

Unfortunately, the wolf is the Frontrunner.

@Quroe As much as I'm rooting for the wolf, they're the underdog here, and I feel it's more in the spirit of the market that they're alone. I can see the argument that if it's their home turf, they might be with their pack though. Also, I'm not sure how this would generalise for other battles if we allow multiple of a species.

@wolf this is a good point, people might have traded the wolf higher if they thought it was going to be a pack, so you make an excellent point

@JussiVilleHeiskanen It's also worth pointing out that wolf "packs" aren't really a real thing. IIRC, there was one paper that suggested it, and the author retracted it shortly after publication. They just hang around family, like lots of other critters including humans.

I may have messed this up, so feel free to point out my mistakes, but...

Summary of battles so far:

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#q0i93hg119

Orca - Orcinus orca Vs. Housefly - Musca domestica

Habitat: An open animal farming pasture

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#481x36vdjlw

Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis Vs. Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus

Habitat: A forested riverbank

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#1hq2763c7wo

Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi Vs. Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens

Habitat: Kuril-Kamchatka Trench floor; 8660 m below sea level

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#loaybr2un7s

Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi Vs. Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine

Habitat: A mossy glade in Kangding, China.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#kwa2qrereko

Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 Vs. Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus

Habitat: Grassland

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#ezyiksgdwn7

Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈 Vs. Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus

Habitat: A forest canopy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#qlawy3pbxr

Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius Vs. Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea

Habitat: A tropical, wooded area in the Caribbean

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#cmxbbh2os1h

Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius Vs. Aha ha wasp - Aha ha

Habitat: Kununurra, Western Australia -- a bank overlooking Lily Creek Lagoon

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#rvezcx2ysnf

Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius Vs. New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax

Habitat: Magdalena River bank in Colombia

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#8bd7q8e9omv

Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius Vs. Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus

Habitat: A New York City sewer

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#8419deo7jj

Elephant - Loxodonta africana Vs. Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi

Habitat: A lush, prehistoric jungle

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#piwyq0106ed

Elephant - Loxodonta africana Vs. Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota

Habitat: Marshlands of Marismas Nacionales

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#4ik8pwzijg6

Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis Vs. Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor

Habitat: Lake Natron

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#5wn21ymjvn4

Lion - Panthera leo Vs. Great evening bat - Ia io

Habitat: Moon Cave, National Park Cuc phuong in Vietnam

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#o8pwouq6cwn

Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus Vs. Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus

Habitat: A mountainous cave

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#g8a4kr67k3u

Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus Vs. Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus

Habitat: A rocky mountain stream

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#xtkni0ucw5

Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus Vs. Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis

Habitat: Madagascar rainforest

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#m0fl46nzdfb

Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus Vs. Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus

Habitat: A forest in Madagascar

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#psk9tn723c7

Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus Vs. Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes

Habitat: Nevadan alpine forest

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#05yykp3bnw3r

Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus Vs. Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca

Habitat: Bamboo forest, Minshan Mountains, China

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https://manifold.markets/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal#ugluicxnur

Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus Vs. Meerkat - Suricata suricatta

Habitat: Geographically "around" the Cape of New Hope with rock crevices in a stony, calcareous area.

@wolf Impressive "savepoint" work.

Discussion phase #21!

@2theMoon (AKA @pureprofit) with the Frontrunner

Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus

Vs.

@samoel (AKA @elephant) with the Underdog

Meerkat - Suricata suricatta

Whalebait time! Discuss!

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Also, I don't know who made it so, but shout out to whoever tried to line up Prehistoric Elephant and House Mouse to fight earlier. That made me chuckle.

@Quroe Oh, I didn't catch that, that's delightful!

@Quroe I have a feeling that this will be a 50/50 battle; the whale's inability to breathe on land and the meerkat being very easy prey

Note: hate mobile typing

@alttest100a ..."Very easy"?

@Quroe fixed, message glitched out

@alttest100a Bold claim. Do you have a citation to back up your argument?

@alttest100a I'm suspicious of this article. The images in it seem AI generated. I don't know if I can trust this as a reference source; it doesn't cite sources, so I can only assume it's AI text as well.

I have used AI in previous matchups to help aid with researching sources and to help fill in blanks I can't find sources for, but only once I've hit a wall.

I appreciate the participation, though! This is the kind of energy I welcome.

@100Anonymous This site seems to put a name and a face to the authorship. I'll work with it!

Battle phase #21!

@2theMoon (AKA @pureprofit) with the Frontrunner

Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus

Vs.

@samoel (AKA @elephant) with the Underdog

Meerkat - Suricata suricatta

Habitat: Geographically "around" the Cape of New Hope with rock crevices in a stony, calcareous area.

A quick entry today. The whale is on dry land, with its body being crushed flat by its own body weight instead of buoyantly bobbing about.

The meerkats see this flesh blob on their territory. They call out to each other that it exists.

That whale is unable to move for 10 seconds. Eliminated. Meerkat wins. Manifestly obvious. No AI used. Ship it.

---Places I went for research---

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Discussion phase #20!

@GazDownright with the Frontrunner

Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca

Discuss!

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe that polar bear is in deep trouble adjusting to the panda's habitat. Seems manifestly obvious.

@100Anonymous I definitely need to research how polar bears fare in warm temperatures.

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 3% order

@Quroe Altitude may be a bigger factor than temperature, especially as it’s still winter in the northern hemisphere. Personally, I think the polar bear will do fine, at least for a brief encounter.

@100Anonymous They are both furries. They have the same range, more about edibles for both.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I do think a polar bear’s winter coat is considerably warmer than a panda’s fur though.

Battle phase #20!

@GazDownright with the Frontrunner

Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca

Habitat: Bamboo forest, Minshan Mountains, China

The polar bear finds itself in a bamboo forest in the Minshan Mountains in China. This is not a cool habitat, but the polar bear is not quite overheating at the temperature it finds itself in. It may acutely overheat if it exerts itself.

A panda bear munches away on a bamboo chute. The panda bear has to eat for most of its waking hours because it doesn't extract very many calories from the bamboo it eats, so it makes up for that by eating in sheer volume.

The polar bear notices the panda first, with it being the only actual predator here! (I guess the panda technically has the biological mechanisms to eat meat, but its niche is to eat bamboo. Fate is cruel.)

The polar bear reeks. It tries to prowl around the panda to be downwind so as not to give away its scent. The polar bear begins to grow warm from moving in this temperature. It needs to conserve its thermoregulatory stamina.

Meanwhile, the panda... well... continues to munch on the bamboo. It doesn't have to worry too much about predation, normally.

The polar bear charges at the panda! The panda, being the rotund beast that it is, attempts to roll onto all-fours to begin escape, but fumbles the maneuver onto its side.

The polar bear bites down on the panda. It takes some effort, but it manages to grab purchase on flesh through the panda's fur coat. The polar bear clamps down on the panda as if it was a seal, except it is a little more round. The polar bear begins to overheat from the exertion, but it can push through it for the sake of a big meal. Surely prey this big has more blubber than a seal, right?

The polar bear easily mauls the panda. Once the panda is defeated, the polar bear takes a breather to thermoregulate itself before devouring its meal.

The polar bear wins! I think this is manifestly obvious.

Also, I know I haven't been saying this a lot recently, but every single one of these battles is and will continue to be human-written. I just don't feel the need to hammer it home every time.

---Places I went for research---

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda

    • The giant panda lives exclusively in six montane regions in a few Chinese provinces at elevations of up to 3,000 m (9,800 ft).

    • It is solitary and gathers only in mating seasons.

    • It has been estimated that an adult panda absorbs 54.8–66.1 mg (0.846–1.020 gr) of cyanide a day through its diet.

    • Yes, scientists did try giving a panda Viagra to get it to mate in captivity. This is a real thing that happened.

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

opened a Ṁ200 NO at 4% order

@Quroe wait polar bears cannibalize?! the more you know!

@moobunny Yup! It's not afraid to eat anything bear shaped.

Not the panda! Dang it, sea bear!

@Quroe I enjoy the writing. Clearly not AI

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