I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.
Setup phase:
Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:
[common name] - [scientific name]
Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus
A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.
Selection phase:
The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.
Discussion phase:
Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it.
Battle phase:
The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.
By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.
An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.
If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.
I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.
I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.
Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.
If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.
I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.
Medals:
🥉: Battles won as Underdog
🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner
🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)
Dashboard to derivative markets
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
I will not trade on this market.
The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.
This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.
1,000People are also trading
Discussion phase #36!
@GazDownright with the Frontrunner
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Discuss!
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #36!
@GazDownright with the Frontrunner
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Discuss!
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #35!
@TheAllMemeingEye with the Frontrunner
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
lol
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Battle phase #35!
@TheAllMemeingEye with the Frontrunner
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Habitat: An American suburban house
The penis snake finds itself in a regular ol' house. The cat happens upon the penis snake in the living room. This is unexpected for the cat, but the cat is curious nontheless. The penis snake (which isn't actually a snake, taxonomically speaking), is out of its element. They like to be in water, as most caecillians do.
The cat goes into hunting mode. It stalks the writhing noodle, approaching cautiously. It gets in the striking range of the penis snake, and it cautiously and quickly swipes its paw at it.
The penis snake writhes a bit, but shows no real sign of fighting back. This encourages the cat to get a little more aggressive with its tactics. It pounces at the penis snake and bites into it, and near the head too!
The cat brings its prize to its owner in the adjacent room. The owner runs out of the room. Whether it's from fear or from purity culture will be left up to the reader to decide their own head canon.
The cat wins! I did seriously consider how there are many videos on the internet of cats being afraid of cucumbers (and, by extension, snakes). I think those are the outliers of cat behavior. See below.
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atretochoana
Wow! "Examination of the specimen showed it to have a number of unusual features, ... [such as] closed choanae, which showed it could not fill any lungs it might have."
I can't easily find any credible YouTube sources. OpenAI, why'd you have to go and make Sora?
https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article-abstract/62/1/39/2705848?redirectedFrom=fulltext
I only read the abstract
https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/28097-Atretochoana-eiselti
The image on this is rarer than others on the internet. This gives me an idea of size. Size matters -- for this battle.
https://amphibiaweb.org/species/1948
"the holotype having a total length of 738 mm, with subsequent specimens reaching 1 meter in length"
More size data.
"Caecilians are typically predators, feeding on small fish, worms, and other aquatic invertebrates."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat
"Cats have excellent night vision and can see at one sixth the light level required for human vision."
Hearing and smell are also advanced.
"Because cats do not have a social survival strategy or herd behavior, they always hunt alone."
" Ethologically, a cat's human keeper functions as a mother surrogate.[108] Adult cats live in a type of extended kittenhood, a form of behavioral neoteny."
"Cats reject novel flavors"
"Domestic cats are a major predator of wildlife in the United States, killing an estimated 1.3 to 4.0 billion birds and 6.3 to 22.3 billion mammals annually."
"The domestic cat is a cosmopolitan species and occurs across much of the world.[51] It is adaptable and now present on all continents except Antarctica"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4U6v7YSUTs
Cat tongues are crazy. Not particularly useful for this battle, but I want you all to know this info.
Let's ask Claude about how cats react to cucumbers.
Yup, survivorship bias seems like a believable answer. Only the videos of cats being funny and freaking out are uploaded. Not the ones where they do nothing. This is probably not typical cat behavior.
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
I did seriously consider how there are many videos on the internet of cats being afraid of cucumbers (and, by extension, snakes)
When I saw the discussion phase comment posting a cat cucumber compilation was my immediate first thought XD
@TheAllMemeingEye I had a feeling that was what somebody was doing for the setup. I am trying not to look at the trade ledger to stay impartial; I don't know who made the matchup. I was surprised nobody wanted to mess with the market by bringing that fact up themselves before my write-up.
Discussion phase #34!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Dog - Canis familiaris
Vs.
@vi with the Underdog
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Discuss!
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Battle phase #34!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Dog - Canis familiaris
Vs.
@vi with the Underdog
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Habitat: Antarctican coastline
Our dog breed is a Kengal Shepherd Dog! This is a dog with a thick coat, and the strongest bite force of all domesticated dog breeds. It finds itself on an ice floe floating off the coast of Antarctica.
It sits on the ice flow, stoically looking into the distance -- on guard.
A leopard seal snakes through the water and notices the dog on the floe, and then stops by the floe underwater out of curosity. The seal is curious. It plops its head up on to the floe, and the Kengal is on alert now! It readies itself, but the cold is starting to get to it. It barks some warning snarls at the seal.
The seal plops back down into the water, but continues to stay near the floe. The dog lowers its alerted state.
The dog can't stay on this little island forever. The coastline is in sight, and it can probably make it, it thinks. It leaps into the water -- a mistake.
The seal was waiting for an opportunity, and now it has it. It torpedoes for the dog and "boops" it. It is... toying with it! The dog is shot with cold, frigid water, and its stamina is draining quickly. It's can't put up much of a fight in the water. The seal waits for the dog to make it about halfway to the shore, but then bites the dog's leg and tows it back to the ice floe. It tries to swim toward the shore again, but the impish seal continues to tow the dog back.
The dog, even though it has a lot of starting stamina, has spent it all. The seal drags the dog under the water now that it has had its fun, and drowns it to death. It will try to eat the dog, and whether or not its successful at that is unknown to me. It certainly had its twisted version of fun today. The leopard seal wins!
Temperament:
Tie. The Kangal is great at going on alert, but the seal can also be laid back unless it catches prey in the water. These two animals very much embody the "tread lightly, but carry a big stick" mentality.
Weaponry:
Tie. They both have great bite force and will mess the other one up if they grab purchase.
Armor:
Favors Canis familiaris. The thick fur of the Kengal is bite armor. The seal looks like it might be able to tank a bite or two, but I am not convinced it it as "bite-proof" and tanky like a walrus.
Body mass:
Favors Hydrurga leptonyx. It looks arguably more massive to me from the measurements on wikipedia.
Speed:
Tie. We're going to largely say that the maneuverability depends on if this is a land battle or a sea battle. The seal has sea superiority with speed, but the dog seems like it will outspeed a blubbering mass on land.
Fight style:
Favors Hydrurga leptonyx. I'm imagining (preroll of the outcome) that the dog might be on an ice floe. If that's the case, the dog will probably want to leave the floe eventually, so the seal might ambush it if it doesn't swim away in search of anything else to eat. I'm giving this edge to the seal.
Physiology:
Favors Hydrurga leptonyx. This is the animal built for this habitat. I think the dog has a thick fur coat and can withstand some cold for a while, but it will want to get warm eventually, I'm sure.
1:3 for Dog to Leopard Seal. Let's roll.
1 is a Dog victory. 2 to 4 is a Leopard Seal victory.
---Places I went for research---
Alright, Claude, what breed are we going with for the dog?
The AI says Kangal!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kangal_Shepherd_Dog
"The dogs can reach speeds of up to 56 km/h (35 mph). The under-layer provides insulation against both severe Anatolian winters and the fierce summer sun, while the outer-layer repels water and snow."
"the coat is dense enough to repel rupture from wolf bites"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxoS8NExdR0
Strongest bite force of all domestic dogs!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjeNUKKQV4c
Claimed to be capable of killing wolves
Severely loyal to their kin and anything their human is friendly with, but will go into full guard dog mode against outsiders or threats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_seal
"It is perhaps best known for its massive jaws, which allow it to be one of the top predators in its environment."
Able to handle great pressure changes, up to 80 m (260 ft)
"Adults are able to take on more difficult but substantial prey, famously including emperor, king, rockhopper, Adélie, gentoo, and chinstrap penguins, though they also prey on other seal species such as Weddell, crabeater, Ross, young southern elephant seals, and fur seal pups."
Ambush hunter: "When hunting penguins, the leopard seal patrols the waters near the edges of the ice, almost completely submerged while waiting for the birds to enter the ocean. It kills the swimming bird by grabbing the feet, then shaking the penguin vigorously and beating its body against the surface of the water repeatedly until the penguin is dead."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaZhOtxsUnY
Largely immobile on land
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em9NEjsNN9g
Might "play with their food" by taunting it. Sometimes literally taunting their prey to death.
Mate between November and March with a gestation period of 8-9 months.
They tend to live away from other leopard seals, solitarily.
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #33!
@moobunny with the Frontrunner
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Lion - Panthera leo
Discuss!
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Battle phase #33!
@moobunny with the Frontrunner
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Lion - Panthera leo
Habitat: A savannah
The lion notices a large, fishy blob on the savvanah plains. The shark finds itself very out of place.
The shark is not able to move. A beached shark does not appear to be able to waddle around and is very similar to a beached whale in terms of helplessness.
Before the 10 seconds are up, the lion, curious about this treasure trove of calories, bites into the side of the shark, and the shark is helpless and cannot retaliate. The shark loses to the mobility rule and will subsequently lose to combat as well.
Ironic that the shark would lose to a bite.
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_white_shark
"White sharks are generally solitary, but may gather in aggregations, particularly at feeding sites."
Electroreception
"They are also documented to heal relatively quickly from even severe wounds, and the species's genome shows 'positive selection in key genes involved in the wound-healing process'."
"White sharks communicate with each other through a complex array of body language. Most behaviors have been observed at aggregations around seal rookeries shortly after peak hunting periods, where sharks engage in extensive socializing. At least 20 unique forms of body language are known, most of which consist of two sharks swimming in passing, parallel, or circular patterns to ritualistically examine one another."
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-o_v0Szm0JY
Viewer discretion advised - A beached shark. It sustains a sudden lethal injury from a rescue attempt. I do not believe it survives this.
I do not expect that a shark can waddle around on land after watching this video.
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #32!
@wolf with the Frontrunner
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes
Vs.
@1bets with the Underdog
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Discuss!
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@wolf I think the market is about to figure out that the roster is split between aquatic and non-aquatic factions.
@Quroe I sort of had this in mind when I added "Lives primarily on land" to the 100Anonymous's prop bets market. Kinda hoped this would not happen to fox though.
Gonna get interesting as an animal's chances of winning change drastically depending on if it's the Frontrunner or Underdog in that case!
Kinda wish Manifold had more precision so everything is not just 2% or 3%.
Battle phase #32!
@wolf with the Frontrunner
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes
Vs.
@1bets with the Underdog
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Habitat: Underwater, 2,000 meters deep
The red fox finds itself very, very deep under water. The octupus notices a potential prey to attack and consume.
So yeah. The fox is very compressed and drowns. There is no contest here. The octopus lurches toward the red fox for an easy meal. If this wasn't manifestly obvious, I don't know what to tell you.
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_Pacific_octopus
"It can be found from the intertidal zone down to 2,000 m (6,600 ft), and is best-adapted to colder, oxygen- and nutrient-rich waters."
Also, the cover photo is of a specimen at 65 meters (312m) of depth. This animal has a large living range.
"E. dofleini preys on shrimp, crabs, scallops, abalones, cockles, snails, clams, lobsters, fish, squid, and other octopuses."
Camouflage! "E. dofleini remain stationary or in hiding 94% of the time, usually concealed within dens, kelp, or camouflaged in their environment."
High intelligence! "Octopuses are ranked as the most intelligent invertebrates."
I'll watch videos when the octopus comes up again. I'm optimizing for time tonight -- busy life schedule in general. I am pretty sure I'm satisfied with how this battle will go for now.
---Subscription pings---
@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
