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MANIFOLD
What is Quroe's favorite animal?
66
Ṁ1.9kṀ51k
2027
4%
[⚔️Frontrunner] Tiger - Panthera tigris
3%
[⚔️Underdog] Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉
5%
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
3%
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
3%
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
3%
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
4%
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
3%
Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉
3%
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
4%
Coyote - Canis latrans
3%
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
3%
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
3%
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
3%
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
3%
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉
3%
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
3%
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
3%
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
3%
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉
3%
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉

I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.

Setup phase:

Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:

[common name] - [scientific name]

Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus

A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.

Selection phase:

The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.

Discussion phase:

Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it. 

Battle phase: 

  • The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.

  • By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.

  • An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.

  • If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.

  • I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.

  • I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.

  • Additional clarifications on The Field of Battle, sexual dimorphisms, and how animals spawn into the battle are in this comment and in following comments.

  • Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.

  • Time of year matters.

If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.

I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.

Medals:

🥉: Battles won as Underdog

🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner

🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)

Dashboard to derivative markets

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

I will not trade on this market.

The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.

This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
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Discussion phase #41!

@prismatic with the Frontrunner

Tiger - Panthera tigris

Vs.

@solarflare with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Alright, ice worm. Do you get the hat trick? Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@traders I need to slow the duty cycle of this market a bit as I handle some real world shenanigans. I will attempt to hammer this one out tonight, but I might fall short. We'll see.

I cannot make any promises on the ~2 day cycle on phase advancement for about a week, plus or minus a few days. Expect anywhere between no to maybe some phase advancing.

I also wish to ask for the same forgiveness around Manifest weekend too. I want to enjoy my time with you all.

Rest assured, this market will resolve unless I experience some freak accident. Your mana isn't trapped.

@Quroe

Discussion phase #40!

@vi with the Frontrunner

Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Lion - Panthera leo

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe Need some figurative popcorn.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Now this one will be interesting.

@Quroe my take is the deciding factor is behaviouristic and which gender and status gorilla and lion. Are both alpha, or are both rejects from their grouping or what, and what is the first move each of them makes, that can be a butterfly's wings thing as well.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll go with whatever sexual dimorphism and feasible temperament is arguably most fit for this fight.

Battle phase #40!

@vi with the Frontrunner

Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Lion - Panthera leo

Habitat: A savannah

The Eastern lowland gorilla finds itself on a savannah plains. A lion stands across from it in the open field with the rest of its pride. Our champions lock eyes and notice each other.

The gorilla looks like a formidable foe to the lion, but it's also a large source of meat. It locks in and prepares to fight, and so too do the other lions.

The championed lion lunges at the gorilla, and it retaliates by swinging its arms for some battering blows. The lion is tanky enough to take a hit and takes it in stride. The lion resorts to its tried and true weaponry, its claws and bite force. The lion slashes at the gorilla, and the gorilla sustains a bleeding injury.

The rest of the pride joins the fight, encircling the gorilla. The makes a show of force by quickly approaching the lions that get in too close, but the lions back off just enough to stay out of reach. Eventually, a lion pounces at the gorilla from behind and lands a critical bite wound on the gorilla on the back of the neck.

The other lions quickly close the gap and finish the job, and they each get a share of the spoils.

I think the lions take this one. It was almost a close call, but I think the herbivorous diet of the gorilla versus the predatory, carnivorous nature and tool kit of the lion is what sets me over the edge to say that this is manifestly obvious. That, and they have herding behavior.

---Places I went for research---

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Discussion phase #39!

@1bets with the Frontrunner

Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Battle phase #39!

@1bets with the Frontrunner

Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Habitat: A glacier along the coast of North America

The octopus finds itself on ice! This is not an ideal habitat for it! It will probably die if it doesn't find its way back to the ocean soon, and we'll be generous and say that the ocean is visible from where we are.

The octopus begins to lurch along the ice. It doesn't die due to decompression -- it can actually survive in intertidal zones for a while in its natural habitat. However, it won't live for more than an hour out of the water.

The octopus slimes itself over the ice worms that scatter the glacier. Our championed ice worm is one of them, and it notices the slimy presence of... something above it. It's largely helpless to the shove, but it's not lethally damaged.

They are like 2 ships passing in the night, but one of these ships is in desparate need to get back to port.

The octopus continues on its way to somewhere -- anywhere else but here, and it leaves the ice worm behind and won't interact with it again in any meaningful way. I think it's safe to say that the octopus has left the Field of Battle. The ice worm wins, but not by much in the grand scheme of things.

I almost judged that the octopus would have eaten the worm if I thought it could survive on the ice semi-comfortably, but I think an octopus fighting for its life to get back to the ocean is not going to stop for a snack.

---Places I went for research---

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Discussion phase #38!

@2theMoon with the Frontrunner

Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe Thanks for running this still, I’ve mostly stopped using Manifold but this is worth checking in on. Even when it’s another one-sided matchup.

@moobunny It has been more taxing than I originally imagined, but the show must go on!

Battle phase #38!

@2theMoon with the Frontrunner

Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Habitat: A glacier along the coast of North America

The sperm whale is plopped down in an ice worm field. The sperm whale is basically beached on ice.

The sperm whale, lying on its side, notices an incredibly small wriggly thing near its eyeball. That's our championed ice worm for this fight!

The ice worm also notices the lack of sunlight it can sunbathe in and begins to get a move on. Meanwhile, the whale is iced for 10 seconds, immobile, and loses to the immobility rule.

The ice worm wins!

---Places I went for research---

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperm_whale

    • The females can live in pods. This herding behavior might be useful.

    • Can echolocate

    • Prefer to live in waters that are over 1,000 meters (3,300 ft) deep.

    • "Sperm whales are not known for forging bonds with other species, but it was observed that a bottlenose dolphin with a spinal deformity had been accepted into a pod of sperm whales. They are known to swim alongside other cetaceans such as humpback, fin, minke, pilot, and killer whales on occasion."

    • "Sperm whales can suffer from parasites [like] Placentonema gigantissima, potentially the largest nematode worm ever described"

      • This is another species in this tournament, so expect the sperm whale to make a return if it's an underdog contender.

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hve8_iSDD-o

    • There's a lot of cool stuff here, and I think I'll let this video do most of the talking aside from a few scant notes.

    • Complex language may be present in this species.

    • They have complex air management biology to withstand the massive pressure changes from diving.

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu-aMClCsNc

    • A human-whale interaction

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Quroe Placentonema gigantissima is going to have a bad time if its host is inexplicably dying on a glacier

@moobunny Well... P. gigantissima only gets the sperm whale host if it's an Underdog. If it's frontrunning, I believe it will be fully exposed unless I find something in my research that suggests otherwise.

sold Ṁ0 YES

@Quroe surely merits the red ex visual

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Oh my gosh, I'm so sorry. Everything about this market is human performed with no automation. 😅

@JussiVilleHeiskanen what does this comment mean?

@TheAllMemeingEye I failed to write in the X emoji on the market answer when the animal was knocked out.

@TheAllMemeingEye And I was being my usual pest self.

Discussion phase #37!

@2theMoon with the Frontrunner

Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Cat - Felis catus

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

12 remaining animals with research, 20 without. My work is beginning to wane.

@Quroe remember to sell cat once it has 9 wins.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen For what it's worth, the cat does not have 9-lives plot armor. 😄

Discussion phase #37!

@2theMoon with the Frontrunner

Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Cat - Felis catus

Habitat: A suburban American home

The pompeii worm funds itself in the living room of a normal, average, everyday American home. The cat notices a strange mound of flesh on the tile floor.

The pompeii worm, not able to live on the surface of the earth due to the vast pressure differential compared to its home habitat, experiences rapid decompression and promptly dies on the spot.

The cat walks up to it, gets a strong whiff of the sulfurous mass in front of it, gags a bit, and walks away, leaving the mess for its human.

The cat wins.

---Places I went for research---

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe goat cat

@prismatic Sir, that is 2 animals.

@Quroe cat goat!

@prismatic Or ma'am. I don't know how you roll.

@Quroe sir lol

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