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MANIFOLD
What is Quroe's favorite animal?
66
Ṁ1.9kṀ53k
2027
3%
[⚔️Frontrunner] Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
2%
[⚔️Underdog] Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉
5%
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
4%
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
3%
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
5%
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
4%
Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉
3%
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
2%
Coyote - Canis latrans
3%
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
5%
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
0.5%
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
2%
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉
5%
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
3%
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
3%
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉
3%
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉
3%
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
0.4%
Other
3%
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri

I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.

Setup phase:

Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:

[common name] - [scientific name]

Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus

A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.

Selection phase:

The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.

Discussion phase:

Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it. 

Battle phase: 

  • The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.

  • By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.

  • An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.

  • If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.

  • I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.

  • I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.

  • Additional clarifications on The Field of Battle, sexual dimorphisms, and how animals spawn into the battle are in this comment and in following comments.

  • Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.

  • Time of year matters.

If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.

I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.

Medals:

🥉: Battles won as Underdog

🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner

🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)

Dashboard to derivative markets

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

I will not trade on this market.

The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.

This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
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Discussion phase #43!

@vi with the Frontrunner

Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana

Vs.

@ovals with the Underdog

Housefly - Musca domestica

Discuss!

---Subscription pings---

@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Also, I'm taking another step back from this for Manifest. See you all there!

Okay, my sleep deficit is about recovered from Manifest. I'm putting my life back together, but the goal is to have this one done before the weekend is over, then I can get back on pace.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ovals After possibly beating the blue whale, not immediately obvious to me what on the list it can beat realistically.

sold Ṁ4 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen might be an eternal stalemate with the sloth and bedbug lol

Discussion phase #42!

@ArbaniYasiz with the Frontrunner

Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

Vs.

@ovals with the Underdog

Housefly - Musca domestica

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe seems very likely to go identically to with the orca

@TheAllMemeingEye No comment.

Battle phase #42!

@ArbaniYasiz with the Frontrunner

Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus

Vs.

@ovals with the Underdog

Housefly - Musca domestica

Habitat: Same as before

Yeah, this goes down pretty much like how this fight went, except you can find-and-replace every instance of the word orca with blue whale instead. Manifestly obvious. Next!

---Places I went for research---

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

The plan is to get back on cadence tonight.

In the meantime, check out this developing story for an animal I covered way back here.

———

USDA Investigates Possible New World Screwworm Case in South Texas

https://ground.news/article/possible-flesh-eating-screwworm-case-in-texas-usda-says?utm_source=mobile-app&utm_medium=newsroom-share

https://youtu.be/PMooWd5kGxg?si=Fq8SPUPH8Z9ZMYUR

Discussion phase #41!

@prismatic with the Frontrunner

Tiger - Panthera tigris

Vs.

@solarflare with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Alright, ice worm. Do you get the hat trick? Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@traders I need to slow the duty cycle of this market a bit as I handle some real world shenanigans. I will attempt to hammer this one out tonight, but I might fall short. We'll see.

I cannot make any promises on the ~2 day cycle on phase advancement for about a week, plus or minus a few days. Expect anywhere between no to maybe some phase advancing.

I also wish to ask for the same forgiveness around Manifest weekend too. I want to enjoy my time with you all.

Rest assured, this market will resolve unless I experience some freak accident. Your mana isn't trapped.

@Quroe

@Quroe we cool

And we're back from our break. Back at it!

---

Battle phase #41!

@prismatic with the Frontrunner

Tiger - Panthera tigris

Vs.

@solarflare with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Habitat: A glacier along the coast of North America

The tiger finds itself on an icy expanse. It's pretty cold here, but it can handle the chill for a little bit.

It sees ice worms strewn across the open ice fields. It stands still with its thin fur rippling in the wind. It surverys the situation, then bends down to inspect the ice. It sees an ice worm up close -- the championed ice worm for this battle comes into view!

It notices that the snow it wet. It laps at the ice to drink up some moisture, taking the ice worm up with it as a collateral-damage snack.

The tiger wins! The ice worm was eaten.

Let's be honest. If I use the non-obvious outcome protocol, the tiger wins on every front except the physiology factor to the ice worm's habitat. Temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, and fight style all go to the tiger.

6:1 odds of tiger : ice worm.

1 to 6 is a tiger victory, 7 is a nat-crit for the ice worm.

---Places I went for research---

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger

    • "The tiger is an apex predator and preys mainly on hooved mammals, which it takes by ambush."

    • "The orange colour may also aid in concealment, as the tiger's prey is colour blind and possibly perceives the tiger as green and blended in with the vegetation."

    • Habitats include:

      • deciduous and subtropical pine forest

      • a mosaic of tropical broadleaf forest and grassland

      • mixed deciduous and semi-evergreen forests

      • dipterocarp and montane forests

    • "The tiger is a powerful swimmer and easily transverses rivers as wide as 8 km (5.0 mi); it immerses in water, particularly on hot days."

    • "In general, it is less capable of climbing trees than many other cats due to its size, but cubs under 16 months old may routinely do so."

    • "Adult tigers lead largely solitary lives within home ranges or territories..."

    • They perform scent marking.

    • "A tiger can sprint 56 km/h (35 mph) and leap 10 m (33 ft)"

    • "In much of their range, tigers share habitat with leopards and dholes. They typically dominate both of them, though with dholes it depends on their pack size."

  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FK3dav4bA4s

    • Semi-aquatic!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Discussion phase #40!

@vi with the Frontrunner

Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Lion - Panthera leo

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe Need some figurative popcorn.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Now this one will be interesting.

@Quroe my take is the deciding factor is behaviouristic and which gender and status gorilla and lion. Are both alpha, or are both rejects from their grouping or what, and what is the first move each of them makes, that can be a butterfly's wings thing as well.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll go with whatever sexual dimorphism and feasible temperament is arguably most fit for this fight.

Battle phase #40!

@vi with the Frontrunner

Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Lion - Panthera leo

Habitat: A savannah

The Eastern lowland gorilla finds itself on a savannah plains. A lion stands across from it in the open field with the rest of its pride. Our champions lock eyes and notice each other.

The gorilla looks like a formidable foe to the lion, but it's also a large source of meat. It locks in and prepares to fight, and so too do the other lions.

The championed lion lunges at the gorilla, and it retaliates by swinging its arms for some battering blows. The lion is tanky enough to take a hit and takes it in stride. The lion resorts to its tried and true weaponry, its claws and bite force. The lion slashes at the gorilla, and the gorilla sustains a bleeding injury.

The rest of the pride joins the fight, encircling the gorilla. The gorilla makes a show of force by quickly approaching the lions that get in too close, but the lions back off just enough to stay out of reach. Eventually, a lion pounces at the gorilla from behind and lands a critical bite wound on the gorilla on the back of the neck.

The other lions quickly close the gap and finish the job, and they each get a share of the spoils.

I think the lions take this one. It was almost a close call, but I think the herbivorous diet of the gorilla versus the predatory, carnivorous nature and tool kit of the lion is what sets me over the edge to say that this is manifestly obvious. That, and they have herding behavior.

---Places I went for research---

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

@Quroe the what makes a show of force?

@100Anonymous Agh, I forgot a word when I was self editing my verb tense. Let me edit it back in.

Discussion phase #39!

@1bets with the Frontrunner

Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Discuss!

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

Battle phase #39!

@1bets with the Frontrunner

Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini

Vs.

@prismatic with the Underdog

Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus

Habitat: A glacier along the coast of North America

The octopus finds itself on ice! This is not an ideal habitat for it! It will probably die if it doesn't find its way back to the ocean soon, and we'll be generous and say that the ocean is visible from where we are.

The octopus begins to lurch along the ice. It doesn't die due to decompression -- it can actually survive in intertidal zones for a while in its natural habitat. However, it won't live for more than an hour out of the water.

The octopus slimes itself over the ice worms that scatter the glacier. Our championed ice worm is one of them, and it notices the slimy presence of... something above it. It's largely helpless to the shove, but it's not lethally damaged.

They are like 2 ships passing in the night, but one of these ships is in desparate need to get back to port.

The octopus continues on its way to somewhere -- anywhere else but here, and it leaves the ice worm behind and won't interact with it again in any meaningful way. I think it's safe to say that the octopus has left the Field of Battle. The ice worm wins, but not by much in the grand scheme of things.

I almost judged that the octopus would have eaten the worm if I thought it could survive on the ice semi-comfortably, but I think an octopus fighting for its life to get back to the ocean is not going to stop for a snack.

---Places I went for research---

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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi

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