I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.
Setup phase:
Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:
[common name] - [scientific name]
Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus
A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.
Selection phase:
The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.
Discussion phase:
Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it.
Battle phase:
The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.
By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.
An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.
If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.
I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.
I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.
Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.
If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.
I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.
Medals:
🥉: Battles won as Underdog
🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner
🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)
Dashboard to derivative markets
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
I will not trade on this market.
The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.
This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.
1,000People are also trading
Discussion phase #38!
@2theMoon with the Frontrunner
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #38!
@2theMoon with the Frontrunner
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@Quroe Thanks for running this still, I’ve mostly stopped using Manifold but this is worth checking in on. Even when it’s another one-sided matchup.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Oh my gosh, I'm so sorry. Everything about this market is human performed with no automation. 😅
Discussion phase #37!
@2theMoon with the Frontrunner
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #37!
@2theMoon with the Frontrunner
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Habitat: A suburban American home
The pompeii worm funds itself in the living room of a normal, average, everyday American home. The cat notices a strange mound of flesh on the tile floor.
The pompeii worm, not able to live on the surface of the earth due to the vast pressure differential compared to its home habitat, experiences rapid decompression and promptly dies on the spot.
The cat walks up to it, gets a strong whiff of the sulfurous mass in front of it, gags a bit, and walks away, leaving the mess for its human.
The cat wins.
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvinella_pompejana
"Studies are hampered by the difficulties of sampling; It is currently quite difficult for Pompeii worms to survive decompression."
Say no more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-7pB4mdMEs
Incredible video of these creatures in their natural habitat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-y4v1iJSUk
Basically the TL;DR of the wikipedia, but a quick watch!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #36!
@GazDownright with the Frontrunner
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@Quroe I've seen clips of aggressive cats scaring away small black bears, but I think that cat is toast against a polar bear
@Quroe I've found numerous results but I've also just noticed it's in my interest to not convince you the cat could win XD
Battle phase #36!
@GazDownright with the Frontrunner
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Habitat: American suburban home
The polar bear finds itself in an American suburban neighborhood. It wanders on to somebody's property.
A housecat immediately takes notice of an intruder on its territory and runs out to engage! The cat sprints out like a bolt of black lightning and appears seemingly out of nowhere to the poar bear.
The polar bear is taken aback. It has never seen something so small feel so brave against something like it. The polar bear is also beginning to overheat, and it likely can't sustain itself in a combat.
The cat hisses and stands its ground. The polar bear begins to approach, but within a half second of this motion starting, the cat advances and hisses more menacingly.
The polar bear backs up, again, startled by this smol being's tenacity. If this cat can be this brave against a plar bear, it probably has something in its evolutionary arsenal to take on large foes. At least, this is what the polar bear is thinking.
The polar bear back away and exits the property. The cat has defended its home turf. The cat wins!
This wasn't manifestly obvious. This was pretty close!
Temperament:
Favors Felis catus. I imagine the cat will be much more territorial and feisty. The polar bear will be surprised by an animal it has never encountered.
Weaponry:
Favors Ursus maritimus. If it did decide to fight the cat, it would maul the cat if its claws or bite connect.
Armor:
Favors Ursus maritimus. The bear is tankier with more fur.
Body mass:
Favors Ursus maritimus. Again, the bear is tankier.
Speed:
Favors Felis catus. The cat would definitely be agile enough to evade attacks.
Fight style:
Favors Felis catus. The polar bear can fight animals that are typically helpless due to a speed disadvantage. The cat is not that. Since the cat can actually kite the bear and stay at a safe distance -- even intimidate the bear -- I'm giving this arena to the cat.
Physiology:
Favors Felis catus. The cat is on its own home turf. The polar bear will probably overheat if the battle is prolonged. The cat is better suited to this environment.
Cat has 4 points, polar bear has 3. Rolling a random number now. 1 through 4 is a cat victory, and 5 through 7 are a polar bear victory.
---Places I went for research---
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkWh1RPIVTc
These aren't polar bears, but that's probably close enough for me.
The above 2 videos show me that a cat will definitely fight. Although, these are the videos that exist due to survivorship bias. I'm not sure how this will play out in real life. I'll need to run this through the close call system.
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #35!
@TheAllMemeingEye with the Frontrunner
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
lol
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Battle phase #35!
@TheAllMemeingEye with the Frontrunner
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Cat - Felis catus
Habitat: An American suburban house
The penis snake finds itself in a regular ol' house. The cat happens upon the penis snake in the living room. This is unexpected for the cat, but the cat is curious nontheless. The penis snake (which isn't actually a snake, taxonomically speaking), is out of its element. They like to be in water, as most caecillians do.
The cat goes into hunting mode. It stalks the writhing noodle, approaching cautiously. It gets in the striking range of the penis snake, and it cautiously and quickly swipes its paw at it.
The penis snake writhes a bit, but shows no real sign of fighting back. This encourages the cat to get a little more aggressive with its tactics. It pounces at the penis snake and bites into it, and near the head too!
The cat brings its prize to its owner in the adjacent room. The owner runs out of the room. Whether it's from fear or from purity culture will be left up to the reader to decide their own head canon.
The cat wins! I did seriously consider how there are many videos on the internet of cats being afraid of cucumbers (and, by extension, snakes). I think those are the outliers of cat behavior. See below.
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atretochoana
Wow! "Examination of the specimen showed it to have a number of unusual features, ... [such as] closed choanae, which showed it could not fill any lungs it might have."
I can't easily find any credible YouTube sources. OpenAI, why'd you have to go and make Sora?
https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article-abstract/62/1/39/2705848?redirectedFrom=fulltext
I only read the abstract
https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/28097-Atretochoana-eiselti
The image on this is rarer than others on the internet. This gives me an idea of size. Size matters -- for this battle.
https://amphibiaweb.org/species/1948
"the holotype having a total length of 738 mm, with subsequent specimens reaching 1 meter in length"
More size data.
"Caecilians are typically predators, feeding on small fish, worms, and other aquatic invertebrates."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cat
"Cats have excellent night vision and can see at one sixth the light level required for human vision."
Hearing and smell are also advanced.
"Because cats do not have a social survival strategy or herd behavior, they always hunt alone."
" Ethologically, a cat's human keeper functions as a mother surrogate.[108] Adult cats live in a type of extended kittenhood, a form of behavioral neoteny."
"Cats reject novel flavors"
"Domestic cats are a major predator of wildlife in the United States, killing an estimated 1.3 to 4.0 billion birds and 6.3 to 22.3 billion mammals annually."
"The domestic cat is a cosmopolitan species and occurs across much of the world.[51] It is adaptable and now present on all continents except Antarctica"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4U6v7YSUTs
Cat tongues are crazy. Not particularly useful for this battle, but I want you all to know this info.
Let's ask Claude about how cats react to cucumbers.
Yup, survivorship bias seems like a believable answer. Only the videos of cats being funny and freaking out are uploaded. Not the ones where they do nothing. This is probably not typical cat behavior.
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
I did seriously consider how there are many videos on the internet of cats being afraid of cucumbers (and, by extension, snakes)
When I saw the discussion phase comment posting a cat cucumber compilation was my immediate first thought XD
@TheAllMemeingEye I had a feeling that was what somebody was doing for the setup. I am trying not to look at the trade ledger to stay impartial; I don't know who made the matchup. I was surprised nobody wanted to mess with the market by bringing that fact up themselves before my write-up.