I'm not sure what my favorite animal is. Let's decide it by a market! This March Mammal Madness inspired game will play out in phases. Aside from the Setup phase, expect each phase to last about a day or two, but I reserve the right to speed up the clock as I deem fit.
Setup phase:
Traders add animals to the market. After the setup phase is complete, traders will no longer be able to add animals to the market. Expect this phase to end some point after this other market resolves. Traders can add as many eligible animals as they wish to the market. To be eligible, add a real, non-microscopic, non-Homo-genus animal by following the provided formatting:
[common name] - [scientific name]
Example: Goldfish - Carassius auratus
A subspecies can be specified, but new animals must have a unique genus + species compares to all other animals already listed.
Selection phase:
The animal with the highest probability (the “Frontrunner”) and the lowest probability (the “Underdog”) will be selected to do battle. I will declare when the approximate cutoff time for when this selection is.
Discussion phase:
Traders can convince me why an animal should win the match up. DO NOT paste an AI / LLM output in the comments. However, I might read an AI / LLM conversation if you paste a link to it.
Battle phase:
The selected animals will appear on “The Field of Battle” in my imagination, but the animals won't necessarily feel that they are supposed to fight each other. At the very least, one should notice the other one.
By default, “The Field of Battle” will be the native habitat of the “Underdog”, and the boundaries of "The Field of Battle" will vary at my discretion. If the probabilities were miraculously a tie, the default habitat would be decided by a coin toss. Other animals may also be present as part of the habitat.
An animal wins the battle if they are last to be incapacitated, or if they are last to be capable of moving (for approximately 10 seconds), or if the other contender flees “The Field of Battle”. I myself will be the sole judge of how this plays out.
If the result doesn't seem manifestly obvious to me, I will use these attributes to guide my decision: temperament, weaponry, armor, body mass, speed, fight style, physiology, and motivation, all relative to the battle's habitat.
I will not take kindly to bribes. Don't even try.
I expect many matches to end by asphyxiation or by an animal wandering off. They won't know where the boundaries are, and they won't know they are in a tournament. They just want to survive and thrive.
Clarification comment on handling lifecycle morphology and parasitism.
If an animal loses a battle, it will be marked as "defeated". If an animal wins a battle, that animal will continue on in the tournament, and that animal will have its memory wiped of the battle. We loop back to the Selection phase after a Battle phase if we're not at the last animal. The last animal on the market that isn't defeated and isn't ineligible resolves YES. All others, NO. "Other" will not resolve YES, but it may be a useful answer during the Setup phase. I cannot resolve market answers until the game is over.
I will award at least 100 mana to the person who adds the animal that wins this tournament. I guarantee no refund of your mana if you add an ineligible animal.
Medals:
🥉: Battles won as Underdog
🥈: Battles won as Frontrunner
🥇: Won a battle while 10 or fewer animals remain. (This is awarded instead of a bronze or silver medal.)
Dashboard to derivative markets
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
I will not trade on this market.
The close date is a placeholder and has no bearing on this market.
This will be a very subjective market. Expect that something will be scuffed, and I will have to fix things on the fly.
1,000People are also trading
Discussion phase #57!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Vs.
@solarflare with the Underdog
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
I was a little late getting this matchup up. Busy weekend. Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@Quroe This is an interesting one because I don’t think the leopard seal will tolerate sulphur well, but also it eats fish, so, …
Can you update the market to show who’s frontrunner and underdog?
Discussion phase #56!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Vs.
@GazDownright with the Underdog
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
I intended to get this battle up tonight, but some antics happened elsewhere instead.
This will be a very busy month for me. I ask for patience, but I want this to be over with and free the mana.
Battle phase #56!
@prismatic with the Frontrunner
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Vs.
@GazDownright with the Underdog
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Habitat: Alpine forest (summer)
The penguin finds itself in the verdant summer heat of an alpine forest. Penguins' high mobility is mostly on display in the cold waters of Antarctica.
Antarctica this is not. The penguin waddles around in the forest foliage in a way that might seem aimless to a casual observer.
And it certainly has an observer. A wolverine bounces along and notices the penguin! This is not its usual quarry, but this wolverine is trying to store up food reserves for the coming winter. A penguin certainly seems like a kill it can perform, much like its normal quarry, like beavers and rabbits.
The wolverine gives chase to the penguin. The penguin's only means of locomotion is waddling -- there's no ice for it to slide on and no nearby water for it to glide in. It's not much of a chase. The wolverine nashes at the penguin and tears deep cuts in its neck through its oily down. The penguin lets out a feeble squawk for help, but nobody is coming to help it.
The penguin is torn apart. The wolverine savors a few bites of its fatty flesh, digs a hole by a nearby rock, and stores the rest of the carcass in the hole, covering it with the rock for safe storage.
The wolverine wins!
---Places I went for research---
See previous penguin research here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolverine
"The adult wolverine is about the size of a medium dog"
"it has potent anal scent glands used for marking territory and sexual signaling"
"Wolverines live primarily in isolated arctic, boreal, and alpine regions of northern Canada, Alaska, Siberia, and Fennoscandia; they are also native to European Russia, the Baltic countries, the Russian Far East, northeast China and Mongolia."
"Wolverines are primarily scavengers."
"The wolverine is also a powerful and versatile predator. Its prey mainly consists of small to medium-sized mammals, but wolverines have been recorded killing prey many times larger than themselves, such as adult deer."
The list of prey includes many animals that seem to fit the "shape" of a penguin.
The video featured on the page shows a wolverine in its natural habitat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEMVjEpA5sE
A wild wolverine appeared!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxJdBkGryDE
Okay, these things are cuter than I had originally imagined.
Their entire niche seems to be around scavenging, storing food, and opportunistic predation.
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@Quroe when I first saw one about in a zoo, it wasn't the cuteness of the wolverine that surprised me,it was the comical gait, like something out of a Robert Crumb cartoon
@moobunny Right?!
@JussiVilleHeiskanen And yes. The only image of a wolverine I had in my head prior to research was the superhero. This was... let's say a subversion of my expectations.
Discussion phase #55!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Battle phase #55!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Habitat: Gulf of Mexico, offshore
The leopard seal finds itself in the warm, warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Its thick blubber does little good in this environment.
From what I see on the Wikipedia pages for these animals, it doesn't look like they share much habitat at all. Their ocean habitats seem to be exactly not what the other one is.
A pod of dolphins approach the leopard seal. Both the championed dolphin and the leopard seal are hydrodynamically built, so they are both very mobile. However, the leopard seal can only do short bursts of speed before it begins to overheat and needs to rest.
The leopard seal rushes the pod, but the dolphins scatter. After this short burst, the leopard seal is overheated and has run out of stamina. It cannot easily vent the heat off because the blubber acts as an insulator against dispelling heat -- the environment can't easily accept the heat.
The dolphins identify that this is a predator that isn't worth messing with and, instead of hanging around, decide to hang out elsewhere. The leopard seal tries to move as little as possible to prevent itself from overheating further, but it isn't immobile!
In a reversal of expectations, the dolphins have fled, and the leopard seal remains in The Field of Battle. By the rules set out in this tournament, the leopard seal technically wins!
---Places I went for research---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_seal
"They are covered in a thick layer of blubber that helps to keep them warm while in the cold temperatures of the Antarctic."
AI was used to check my intuition on how the blubber factors in. https://claude.ai/share/f1f3e5d6-f0d4-41ec-bb09-4f03ff418cc4
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
Discussion phase #54!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Discuss!
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@Quroe Hmm. lowland gorilla. Was thinking how mountain gorilla's might not be phazed by cold. Also, I bet gorilla's can swim. Well, it is furry anyhow, so some insulation is available. The cold will slow it down big time though, where as the penguin will be pretty much manic fast in the water. But if the penguin is on an ice shelf of any size, there isn't a humongous advantage for the penguin, just an edge. [Edit: the gorilla might recognize it needs energy to keep it's core temperature up, so it might move on the penguin with desperation, they aren't obligate herbivores in a constraining sense]
https://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/animals/penguins/emperor-penguin/breeding-cycle/
> During the chick rearing period there is a lot of activity in the colony – parents coming and going, chicks looking for anybody willing to feed them – there is a lot of walking around and calling. Both parents take turns brooding their offspring until the youngsters are able to stand on the ice by themselves. By September, the chicks have grown a thick cover of down and are developing quite rapidly. Growing requires a lot of energy so they are always hungry. It now takes both parents to go out and gather food for the youngsters. When the little ones are left at the colony they form huddles, especially at night, to keep warm.
It's a little unclear if we're at the "both parents go out and gather food for the youngsters" time of year right now, or if one of them will be staying with the chick. If the gorilla is unlucky enough to encounter the penguin while it's swimming, it seems very one-sided in favor of the penguin, but they may be either at the colony keeping the chick warm or walking potentially tens of miles across the ice to or from the ocean. If that happens the outcome seems less clear.
Battle phase #54!
@vi with the Frontrunner
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Vs.
@prismatic with the Underdog
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Habitat: Antarctic ice shelf
The gorilla finds itself on an Antarctic ice shelf. It is colder than the gorilla can even fathom.
Along comes a waddle of emperor penguins! Our two champions notice each other at about the same time, but the gorilla can't pay much mind to the penguin while it desperately tries to maintain body temperature.
The penguin and the rest of the waddle continue to mosy on by, paying little mind to the gorilla, who is frankly freaking out in its own world. Neither animal really has much interest in engaging, and continues with its own preoccupations.
The penguin, clearly in its element, continues to survive and thrive. The gorilla collapses into a ball and becomes anchored in place to conserve heat.
This is a knockout by immobility. The penguin wins!
---Places I went for research---
See previous gorilla research here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_penguin
Flightless
"Its diet consists primarily of fish, but also includes crustaceans, such as krill, and cephalopods, such as squid."
"The only penguin species that breeds during the Antarctic winter, emperor penguins trek 50–120 km (31–75 mi) over the ice to breeding colonies which can contain up to several thousand individuals."
Those em dashes... Hm... I don't know how I feel about those being here.
Oh God, they're everywhere on this page.
"The tongue is equipped with rear-facing barbs to prevent prey from escaping when caught."
Heavy cold resistance
"[This penguin] can maintain its core temperature from 38.0 °C (100.4 °F) down to −47 °C (−53 °F)."
It can survive comfortably at "−10 to 20 °C (14 to 68 °F)".
Adapted to high-pressure dives that would otherwise cause barotrauma in most terrestrial organisms.
"The emperor penguin has a circumpolar distribution in the Antarctic almost exclusively between the 66° and 77° south latitudes. It almost always breeds on stable pack ice near the coast and up to 18 km (11 mi) offshore. Breeding colonies are usually in areas where ice cliffs and icebergs provide some protection from the wind."
"As a defence against the cold, a colony of emperor penguins forms a compact huddle (also known as the turtle formation)"
Courtship/breeding
"The penguins start courtship in March or April"
Egg laying in May or early June
"After laying, the mother's food reserves are exhausted. She carefully transfers the egg to the male and then returns to the sea for two months to feed."
"There he balances it on the tops of his feet, engulfing it with loose skin and feathers for around 65–75 days until hatching."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PwDFddpo4c
Absolutely incredible footage here. Baby's first swim!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7PlUGbsXlQ
An unlikely ally. Cute!
AI was used to get an understanding of just how rough the environment would be on the gorilla. https://claude.ai/share/1ffdca66-6f9d-4e1c-b1a2-bc0fc81f8635
It seems like the gorilla could withstand the temperature for a short bit. It wouldn't die instantly, but it would not have a good time either.
I'll admit this left little to my imagination, and I probably got much more than what I was asking for in this prompt, but that's what I get for asking Opus 5 on Max thinking settings, I suppose. Oops.
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@wolf @Bayesian @GazDownright @digory @moobunny @TheAllMemeingEye @Gen @121 @100Anonymous @vi
@TheAllMemeingEye I am aware of the issue.
@Gen @wasabipesto Any ideas on what might be happening? My standard "subscription pings" are not hitting notification inboxes.
That tracks. It was about a week since my last blast. We did an accidental science.