🏅 Top traders

@traders I'm still setting up some of the additional linked resources, but this should get you started.

I am convinced the spreadsheet is up to date and the results are final.

With 264 points, your winners are...
@Bayesian - BETQWE

@Jack0 - My Team

Please reply to the comment on my Mana Vault to claim your shared prize of 250 mana! (500/2 mana)

@Quroe At least my team lived up to its rep (I in particular really tanked it aha)

Season 32's market will be up momentarily. Be prepared for my shenanigans.

@Stralor I was the safest bet on there lol (I ended my league with 18k earned in gold whereas second place had only 3500)

although i was the one who tanked you so it evened out i guess lol

@notrealDonaldTrump yeah. except for my master's pick (which is already a big rollercoaster) all my picks got max points or 0

@Stralor I personally got dead last in my league, and it wasn't close. I was #1 for most the season then I defected to YES in /Bandors/halflife-3-confirmed-by-eoy oops. I still think that has a chance to payout, I just picked bad dates wrt leagues

@Stralor I thought it was mostly because /ms/will-i-publish-a-post-every-day-of ?

@notrealDonaldTrump nope, that was a last minute gamble to snipe a turnaround. I had many thousands in wins and losses last season with a few big outlier losses plus >4k of bonuses that put me around -2k in total. that one market would have put me in promotion, but I had to not just steal the market -- I had to win it in resolution

Bear with me for the next market. I need to make a team that jumps through the same hoops as you all will, and it might take a while.

@Quroe Can we do a Season 32?

@notrealDonaldTrump yeah this was fun. i wish there was a tiebreak using total mana earned or something tho

@notrealDonaldTrump Absolutely! I'll get the market rev'd up later today. There will be a twist that will restrict how you draft your team -- because why not be silly and ridiculous, right?

@Bayesian Give me some ideas to work with. What do you think would make the most sense, if I had to copy and paste a rule set in?

@Quroe What about, in case of a tie, you compute the score from the last season and add that to the finalist's totals, then the team with more points wins? Then in case of a further tie, the total mana earned over the season.

@notrealDonaldTrump Hm... I want something elegant and human readable/understandable. So far, just calculating the mana earned may be the better tie breaker.

imo just tiebreak using argmax(sum of mana earned for each team member)

ig ties are fine tbh if you value legibility just keep it as is

@Bayesian Human readability is the main goal. If we want to have people bet with human intuition, we need to appeal to human minds.

@Quroe Yes we are not normal human specimens

Expect this to resolve after a day or two after the League ends. I want to ensure the League data pulled from APIs is up to date on the spreadsheet (since it doesn't seem like truly live data).

@Quroe Tie seems likely?

@Jack0 Perhaps it might! I'll pull up the rules from the fine print if it comes to that:

[If it's a shared tie,] the teams with the most points are resolved to 100%/N, where N is the number of teams that all score the most points. If it cannot be distributed perfectly, I will award the extra point to the team highest in "high %" listing order.

I will award at least 500/N mana (rounded up to the nearest mana) to the poster(s) of the winning team(s). I reserve the right to increase the award pool at will, but not to decrease it.

@Quroe if you make a copy of the spreadsheet, it'll pull the latest data again. As far as I can see, it was a tie

@prismatic I know it pulls a fresh dataset, but I've seen instances where the data pulled from the API was not the same as the live data on the League pages themselves. I will double check it later today when I'm at my computer and confirm I am satisfied the data was live.

I'll launch the next season then too. (With a twist.)

Out of curiosity, did the team creators get the unique trader bonuses for traders on their teams?

The intent was for that to be, "yes," but I want to be sure.

@Quroe I don't think so

@notrealDonaldTrump Hm... I guess it's the "independent" type markets that give answer creators the unique trader bonuses, not "dependent" types.

I'm thinking of running this again, but I want to figure out how to make the incentive structure make sense. This market for League season 31 was my loss leader to see how much interest there is in this type of game. I want to make it +EV for all involved.

Maybe I refund the 25 mana for users to create a team for League Season 32, but reduce the prize pool to 100 mana? I think most of the drive to play in this game is the fun of the game itself. I'm open to suggestions.

Maybe I refund 20 of the 25 mana? I dunno.

@Quroe dependents do give trader bonuses but only if it's the first answer a user traded on in the whole market iirc

@Stralor Does it go to the market judge? Or the answer creator?

@Quroe I definitely got a couple, but not a ton

@Stralor I count 4 trader bonuses, and my answer has 6 holders and 8 traders (incl myself). I probably got them because I was early in.

@Stralor Hm... This implies that teams that are higher on the chart might be more likely to attract new traders, which means that you should make the best team possible to keep getting new trader bonuses.

Maybe the best structure for next season is to just have a 100 mana prize with the smallest liquidity possible. Keep it simple. You risk 25 mana for a shot at 100 mana, plus unique trader bonuses.

Making your team earlier gets more unique trader bonuses too, to offset the information advantage of creating a team last.

@Stralor fwiw I forgot that was a thing, too. it used to be every trader but it also makes sense not to print mana every trade on zero sum except that it's user-submitted 🤔