MANIFOLD
How many lethal overdoses of Fentanyl will occur in the US in 2024?
25
Ṁ1.2kṀ9.9k
resolved May 21
Resolved
YES
>30,000
Resolved
NO
>300,000
Resolved
NO
>270,000
Resolved
NO
>240,000
Resolved
NO
>60,000
Resolved
NO
>90,000
Resolved
NO
>120,000
Resolved
NO
>150,000
Resolved
NO
>180,000
Resolved
NO
>210,000

According to the Center for disease control and prevention.

Market context
US Politics
Death markets
Drug Policy
Drugs
Drug use
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ833
2Ṁ320
3Ṁ116
4Ṁ71
5Ṁ45

People are also trading

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?
40% chance
Fentanyl is no longer the most deadly drug in America at some point before 2030
56% chance
Will the SF Medical Examiner's office report fewer deaths due to accidental drug overdose in 2025 than in 2024?
95% chance
Will there be 2,000 or more drug overdose deaths recorded in King County, WA, USA in 2028?
27% chance
How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?
763
Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?
64% chance
What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 30k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Will there be an Opioid Vaccine available by the end of 2026?
6% chance
Sort by:

This feels kinda gross to bet on

@seaton Then Do Not.

@Quillist all remaining options resolve 'No' (including '>60,000').
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2025/20250514.htm

@snazzlePop incredible

bought Ṁ350 NO

@Quillist you forgot to resolve the remaining options 😉

@Quillist You need to resolve all the questions

What data source are you going to use if the CDC doesn't exist or isn't allowed to report?

@Quillist so if it turns iut to be 910000, >60,0000 resolves YES or NO please

@ChrisMillsc5f7 it would resolve yes

AFAIK CDC has not issued a full report for 2024 yet

Also, I see you bet ‘Yes’ for ‘120,000’ and ‘No’ for ‘30,000’.

But if there are 120,000 fatal ODs then 30,000 fatal ODs also occurred.

@snazzlePop single outcome poll, closest bet wins

@AnilJason wait. Just realised I misconfigured

@AnilJason

Confused Math Lady GIF

*modified the poll/description to be independent.

Lethal overdoses?

@snazzlePop yes, lethal

People are also trading

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?
-22% 1d40% chance
Fentanyl is no longer the most deadly drug in America at some point before 2030
56% chance
Will the SF Medical Examiner's office report fewer deaths due to accidental drug overdose in 2025 than in 2024?
95% chance
Will there be 2,000 or more drug overdose deaths recorded in King County, WA, USA in 2028?
27% chance
How many U.S. civilians will be killed by federal law enforcement agents in 2026?
763
Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?
64% chance
What is the largest number of people US federal law enforcement will kill in a single incident before January 20, 2029?
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Which will be the first year the USA has less than 30k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Will there be an Opioid Vaccine available by the end of 2026?
6% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy