Will I find a German prediction market heavy-user to meet and talk about prediction markets for a journalistic text?
Will I find a German prediction market heavy-user to meet and talk about prediction markets for a journalistic text?
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100Ṁ284resolved Feb 3
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I'm a German journalist currently researching a story on prediction markets, which will also include myself being active on the platforms (surrounding the German election in February 2025). To do this, it would be great to be able to meet a German who is a heavy-user on these platforms in person. Maybe I can find someone through this question.
Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Heavy-user is defined as:
Using several platforms on a more or less daily basis
Considerable invested sums
Success
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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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