Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to whichever company among OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or xAI ceases operations first due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or permanent shutdown. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the company, SEC filings, or major news reports from established financial media outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times). If multiple companies shut down simultaneously, the market resolves to the one that filed for bankruptcy or made the shutdown announcement first.

Background

OpenAI closed a $40 billion Series F funding round at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025, and achieved a $500B valuation milestone in October 2025. Anthropic raised $13 billion in Series F funding as of September 2025. xAI closed a $10 billion debt and equity fundraise in July 2025. Perplexity's valuation stands at $18 billion as of July 2025.

All four companies have secured substantial backing from major institutional investors and have demonstrated revenue generation. Anthropic has $5B ARR and OpenAI is projecting $12.7B in 2025. Perplexity processes 780M queries monthly at $200M ARR, growing 240%+ year-over-year.

Considerations

While these four companies represent the most well-capitalized AI firms, the broader AI startup landscape has seen notable failures. Builder.ai is the largest AI company to collapse since ChatGPT's launch started a global investment frenzy, demonstrating that even well-funded AI startups can face rapid collapse due to financial mismanagement or business model failures. However, the four companies in this market operate at a significantly different scale with diversified revenue streams and institutional support.