MANIFOLD
Will the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election be taller than the runner-up?
9
Ṁ1kṀ981
2029
50%
chance

Resolution criteria

The 2028 U.S. presidential election will be held on November 7, 2028. This market resolves YES if the winner is taller than the runner-up (second-place finisher in the Electoral College), and NO otherwise. In the event of a tie in the electoral college, the winner is the person selected by Congress, and the runner-up is the other tied vote getter. Outlandish edge cases will be resolved based on my own common sense of “winner” and “runner-up” of the election itself (as opposed to any ensuing power struggle).

Height will be determined by my review of reliable public information. I plan to defer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heights_of_presidents_and_presidential_candidates_of_the_United_States, unless there is clear evidence of error or vandalism.

If the heights are so close that in my opinion they cannot be differentiated, this market resolves 50-50.

Market context
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How far through the checklist are we?

  1. Sum up all the money predicted to be spent on last minute publicity for each candidate, including underhanded stuff like botnets on Facebook pretending to be people, and interference by foreign states.

  2. From this determine 1st and 2nd place.

  3. Determine which of the two is the tallest.

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