Which of the following entities will strike/attack Israel before the end of 2024? [add responses]
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21
Ṁ4544
Jan 1
5%
Palestinian National Authority
4%
Egypt
Resolved
YES
Houthis
Resolved
YES
Hezbollah
Resolved
YES
Iran

A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.

Resolves to credible media reports.

(Extension of https://manifold.markets/Elliot_dev/will-iran-strike-israel-in-the-next)

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bought Ṁ750 Houthis YES

@Qoiuoiuoiu the Houthis have taken credit for a drone missle that killed one person and sent others to hospital today in Tel Aviv

I underestimated their technical capabilities. Earlier this year it seemed like they couldn't even reach Eilat.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-launches-drone-attack-toward-israel-idf-says/ does it have to happen after this market was created?

@Adam yup :)

bought Ṁ100 Egypt NO

Two questions:

  • Does it have to be inside Israeli-controlled territory? If yes, does this exclude Gaza?

  • Must the strike/attack be intended to hit Israel/Israeli targets, or will mistakes also count?

@GazDownright Yes, it does have to be inside Israeli controlled territory, excluding Gaza. Mistakes count