The market will resolve as yes if Iran strikes Israel by the experation date of the market. Else the market will resolve no.
A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.
1,000
3.00@Elliot_dev Based on the description, does this mean the strike has to actually reach Israel and destroy a building or field etc. there?
@Panfilo reports have at least one 10 year old Bedouin kid hospitalized in serious condition, so looks like at least one hit (authorities claim "99% of the strike successfully blocked", which does leave that 1%)
@ShakedKoplewitz clarification: he was hit by shrapnel from a successful interception. Otoh if interceptions don't actually guarantee people don't get hurt I'd say it still counts.
@Andrew twitter = probably bs, but I guess shouldn't be too surprised Biden creepily whispering "Don't!" once again failed to avert an attack; US foreign policy under Biden is clownery🤡.
Iran's state news agency says Guards have seized MSC Aries vessel 'linked to Israel'
By Reuters
April 13, 20243:49 AM PDTUpdated 20 min ago
April 13 (Reuters) - Iran's state news agency IRNA said on Saturday that its Revolutionary Guards had seized the MSC Aries vessel it said was "linked to Israel" and it was being transferred to Iran's territorial waters.
A Guards navy special forces helicopter boarded the Portuguese flagged vessel and seized it, IRNA added.
@gpt_news_headlines that would seem to make an actual attack less likely, since they could say this bullshit was it. (I'm afraid to check my work email to see if we had any containers on that one)
@gpt_news_headlines meh, this is a tight deadline, so I buy NO. Iran has shown itself to be rather deliberate wrt any direct overt attacks and instead prefers actions through proxies and unconventional means like this example. Very much a vibe NO, but NO all the same.
@AlQuinn Yeah, if you have a moment, check out the https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/awards-for-season-12-challenge-ques?r=VGltb3RoeUpvaG5zb241YzE2
@AlQuinn They did rocket a US base in Iraq after Trump killed Soleimani though. In a pre-planned, pre-warned and weak way, but still - and this was against the big satan, which is riskier to attack than the little satan. The deadline is tight, but tonight we have airspace closing over Jordan & Teheran, so I am buying more yes.
@admissions I'm supposed to fly over Iran in a Finnair flight next month so hope you're wrong 🤣
@AlQuinn Not really bidding up, just returning it to where it should be, should be even higher actually