205
1.9k
1.8k
resolved Apr 14
Resolved
YES

The market will resolve as yes if Iran strikes Israel by the experation date of the market. Else the market will resolve no.

A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.

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@Elliot_dev I think you can resolve this.

@CertaintyOfVictory Based on the barrage of 70 more missiles, we can resolve it again.

@Elliot_dev Based on the description, does this mean the strike has to actually reach Israel and destroy a building or field etc. there?

@Panfilo reports have at least one 10 year old Bedouin kid hospitalized in serious condition, so looks like at least one hit (authorities claim "99% of the strike successfully blocked", which does leave that 1%)

@ShakedKoplewitz clarification: he was hit by shrapnel from a successful interception. Otoh if interceptions don't actually guarantee people don't get hurt I'd say it still counts.

@ShakedKoplewitz The stuff I saw about that said it was falling debris, no?

Bye bye money

@Andrew twitter = probably bs, but I guess shouldn't be too surprised Biden creepily whispering "Don't!" once again failed to avert an attack; US foreign policy under Biden is clownery🤡.

bought Ṁ140 YES

@AlQuinn it's on israeli news sites now

sold Ṁ49 NO

Iran's state news agency says Guards have seized MSC Aries vessel 'linked to Israel'

By Reuters

April 13, 20243:49 AM PDTUpdated 20 min ago

April 13 (Reuters) - Iran's state news agency IRNA said on Saturday that its Revolutionary Guards had seized the MSC Aries vessel it said was "linked to Israel" and it was being transferred to Iran's territorial waters.

A Guards navy special forces helicopter boarded the Portuguese flagged vessel and seized it, IRNA added.

@gpt_news_headlines that would seem to make an actual attack less likely, since they could say this bullshit was it. (I'm afraid to check my work email to see if we had any containers on that one)

@AlQuinn Yeah, I've been half thinking that. But I'm worried that it's wishful thinking :)

bought Ṁ100 NO

@gpt_news_headlines meh, this is a tight deadline, so I buy NO. Iran has shown itself to be rather deliberate wrt any direct overt attacks and instead prefers actions through proxies and unconventional means like this example. Very much a vibe NO, but NO all the same.

@AlQuinn They did rocket a US base in Iraq after Trump killed Soleimani though. In a pre-planned, pre-warned and weak way, but still - and this was against the big satan, which is riskier to attack than the little satan. The deadline is tight, but tonight we have airspace closing over Jordan & Teheran, so I am buying more yes.

bought Ṁ200 NO

@admissions I'm supposed to fly over Iran in a Finnair flight next month so hope you're wrong 🤣

Fucking mullah of Teheran better deliver

bought Ṁ300 NO

@admissions u friends with the mullahs bidding this up right now?

@AlQuinn Not really bidding up, just returning it to where it should be, should be even higher actually

@admissions 34 hours to close..this should decay quite rapidly, but we will see soon enough ❤

Created this market for a proxy response

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